Predicted fiscal train wreck fast becoming a grim reality.

• Author: Farrell, Lawrence P., Jr.
• Position: PRESIDENTS PERSPECTIVE

The fiscal year 2011 defense budget is about to be released by the Obama administration. The budget, as well as the Quadrennial Defense Review and the Nuclear Posture Review, are much-anticipated documents because they will provide the first real insight into the administration's long-term military and national security strategies.

Some high level details on the budget have come to light. As way of background, it should be noted that the 2010 budget is $636.3 billion--including $101 billion for ongoing military operations. The administration in February requested $130 billion for war costs in fiscal year 2010. Then in December, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the surge of 30,000 troops in Afghanistan would cost $35 billion more. So it looks as if the 2010 bill for defense will eventually amount to something on the order of $700 billion when all is said and done.

According to news reports, the 2011 budget will increase by $15 billion, or $556.4 billion for the 2011 baseline. The jump reflects Gates' view that defense needs to grow by 2 percent a year through 2015 to sustain the 2010 program. Officials told Inside Defense that war costs for 2011 are estimated to be $163.1 billion. That amounts to $719.5 billion for 2011--a $20 billion increase. The 2012-2015 budgets also could see annual increases of $11 billion.

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Sixty billion more for 2011-2015 doesn't look too bad. But it is safe to assume that the squeeze is coming, sooner rather than later.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael Mullen recently described as "unsustainable" the current rate of defense spending. "Money is not going to keep rolling in ... It's just not going to happen," Mullen said in a speech this month at the Naval War College in Newport, R.I. The key reason why defense spending at current levels cannot continue much longer is the dire state of the U.S. economy, Mullen said. "We're in a time of real economic challenge," said Mullen. The military's budget will be affected by these realities, he added. "It's unrealistic to expect this [recent growth trend] will continue," he said.

Mullen said the 2011 budget and the QDR will seek to "balance" the capabilities of the Defense Department by shifting more funds to weapons systems that are relevant to "irregular" warfare and counterinsurgency. "But we are not walking away from conventional" capabilities, he said.

He stressed that one portion of the budget that will not be shortchanged is the...