Preconditions for success in Afghanistan.

• Author: Smith, Haviland
• Position: Essay

Editor's Note:A retired intelligence professional gives his candid assessment of what would constitute "success" in Afghanistan and the chances for reaching this goal.-The Editor

Two successive U.S. administrations have said we must "win" in Afghanistan. David Kilcullen, one of the world's leading counterinsurgency experts and preeminent advisor to the US government, says that we must meet certain markers if we are to "succeed" in Afghanistan: We must face the realities of historical and contemporary Afghanistan. There must be agreement between Afghans and Americans on our goals. We must eliminate the Taliban sanctuary in Pakistan. There must be a solid, long-term US commitment including a flexible timeline.

Defining the issue

However, before those markers can even be discussed, the Obama administration must define the words "success" and "win." As the leading free enterprise democracy in the world, we habitually insist that any enterprise in which we are inclined to invest be prepared to show us that it is making progress that will profit us. That is no less true for the Afghan war than it is for Microsoft, yet our goals have never been clearly defined by either the Bush or Obama administrations.

As a result, there is no way for anyone in this country to measure progress in this war. Without that ability, we will predictably become more easily disenchanted with our Afghan war than we would if we knew fairly precisely what it was that America is fighting for.

Having once defined our goals or what constitutes success, Kilcullen's four markers come into play before we can declare any progress, let alone success. Our willingness and ability to deal with them will be crucial to the result.

Afghanistan's historical and present realities

Afghanistan is a geographically inhospitable, tribal country whose people are corruptible, indomitable, bellicose and armed to the teeth. The tribal Afghans have never had or wanted a strong central government. They have often been invaded by foreign armies and as a result are strongly xenophobic. Throughout the centuries they have successfully resisted all attempts at foreign invasion and occupation.

The governing ideals for the Pashtun people are embodied in their "Pashtunwali" or "Pashtun way" which sets forth a complete code for life. It emphasizes self-respect, independence, justice, hospitality, love, forgiveness, revenge and tolerance toward all people. The main principles of Pashtunwali include freedom and independence, justice and forgiveness, honesty and keeping promises, ethnic unity and equality, support and...