Potential Development Contribution of Fisheries Reform: Evidence From Pakistan

• Published date: 01 September 2020
• Date: 01 September 2020
• Author: David J. Kaczan,Pawan G. Patil
• DOI: 10.1177/1070496520925878
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Potential Development

Contribution of

Fisheries Reform:

Evidence From Pakistan

David J. Kaczan

1

and

Pawan G. Patil

1

Abstract

Mismanagement threatens the productivity and sustainability of an increasing number

of capture fisheries globally, hindering these resources’ ability to contribute to socio-

economic and environmental outcomes such as those embodied in the Sustainable

Development Goals. Using Pakistan as a case study, we assess the contribution that

improved management of Pakistan’s marine fisheries can make to development

through economic growth, productivity, employment, and resource sustainability.

Using a bioeconomic model based on a recent stock assessment, we find large

projected benefits of fisheries reform relative to business as usual. However, pro-

jected production volume is not higher than current output, which is inflated by

ongoing overfishing. Aquaculture is found to have potential for substantial and com-

plementary socioeconomic benefits. We highlight how Pakistan’s fisheries mirror

global trends of plateauing wild capture and falling productivity and suggest key

policy changes and investments along the value chain that can underpin more pro-

ductive and sustainable fisheries in this context.

Keywords

fisheries, development, bioeconomic model, aquaculture, Pakistan

1

Environment, Natural Resources, and the Blue Economy Global Practice, The World Bank, Washington,

District of Columbia, United States

Corresponding Author:

David J. Kaczan, MC 9-605 Main Complex, The WorldBank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC

20433, United States.

Email: dkaczan@worldbank.org

Journal of Environment &

Development

2020, Vol. 29(3) 275–305

!The Author(s) 2020

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/1070496520925878

journals.sagepub.com/home/jed

Capture and culture f‌isheries globally are an important source of income, food

security, nutrition, and livelihoods (B

en

e et al., 2016; World Bank, 2008).

Fisheries supply around 17% of global protein, employ around 60 million

people (14% of whom are women), and produce an annual f‌irst sale value of

around US$362 billion (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United

Nations [FAO], 2018). Fisheries are also poorly managed (High Level Panel

of Experts, 2014; Mohammed et al., 2017). Globally, up to two thirds of com-

mercial capture f‌ish stocks are overf‌ished (Costello et al., 2016; Srinivasan et al.,

2012), costing an estimated US$ 50 to 100 billion per year in lost revenues and

uneconomic expenditure (Arnason, 2011; Arnason et al., 2016; Costello et al.,

2016; Sumaila et al., 2012) and causing severe ecological damage (Pauly et al.,

2002; Scheffer et al., 2005).

Improving management of poorly managed and depleted stocks may be an

opportunity to further socioeconomic goals, such as those articulated by the

United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs; B

en

e et al., 2016; Teh

& Sumaila, 2013; Weeratunge et al., 2010; World Bank, 2008). The SDG frame-

work includes a call for countries to “conserve and sustainably use the oceans,

seas and marine resources for sustainable development” (SDG 14), promote

jobs growth (SDG 8), hunger elimination (SDG 2), and gender equality (SDG

5), among others. Taking Pakistan as a case study, we assess the prospective

contributions of improved f‌isheries management to these outcomes. Given the

natural limits to marine extraction even under good management, we also con-

sider the potential benef‌its and costs of increased aquaculture development. Our

focus on Pakistan is motivated by increasing recognition that Pakistan’s f‌isher-

ies’ performance is low in comparison with peer countries, as well as renewed

political interest in the sector’s reform (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, 2018; Patil

et al., 2018).

Using a bioeconomic model, we determine the impact of marine f‌leet capacity

scenarios on future stock and harvest levels and thus sector revenues and prof‌its.

We further estimate likely changes to employment based on projected changes

to output and f‌ishing effort levels. Where possible, we benchmark these out-

comes against Pakistan’s development targets. Overall, reform in terms of f‌ish-

eries effort management is not found to drive production growth relative to

present levels of output (which are presently high due to overf‌ishing); however,

reform is shown to avoid substantial losses predicted under further f‌isheries

overexploitation. Opportunities for growth relative to present levels are more

likely to arise from value-added investments and reform that lead to higher

quality product, better prices, and/or lower costs. We also consider potential

aquaculture outcomes for Pakistan, based on both current trends and on com-

parisons with aquaculture in neighboring India and Bangladesh. Experiences in

these countries suggest opportunities for growth and improved socioeconomic

returns. We assess the policy and contextual factors that have led to differences

276 Journal of Environment & Development 29(3)