Post-Communist Junctures, the Left, and Illiberalism: Theory with Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

• Author: Binio S. Binev
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00104140221109432
• Published date: 01 March 2023
• Date: 01 March 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

Article

Comparative Political Studies

2023, Vol. 56(4) 465–502

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/00104140221109432

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Post-Communist

Junctures, the Left, and

Illiberalism: Theory with

Evidence from Central

and Eastern Europe

Binio S. Binev

1



Abstract

While many post-communist European party systems have experienced the rise

of anti-establishment parties, not all have been equally vulnerable to challengers

attacking both cultural and economic liberalism. This article borrows insights

from scholarship on Latin American politics and develops a critical juncture

approach to understanding the linkages between economic liberalization and

political illiberalism in 15 post-communist democracies during the 1990-2020

period. It argues that contingent political dynamics during post-communist

junctures shaped ensuing legacies by conditioning the long-term programmatic

positions and variable electoral performance of “traditional”leftist parties. This

path-dependent process culminated in variable electoral viability of illiberal parties

with incentives for ideological differentiation and organizational capacities to

adopt those economic positions that were most likely to be electorally rewarded.

By focusing on variable incentives, resources, and constraints, the article chal-

lenges previous scholarship and advances and tests a novel theoretical framework

based on a probabilistic approach to critical juncture analysis.

Keywords

post-communist Europe, illiberalism, critical junctures, market reform, Latin

America

1

Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Binio S. Binev, Virginia Tech, 220 Stanger Street, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.

Email: biniobinev@vt.edu

If the association between economic development and democratic stability is

generally positive (Przeworski et al., 2000), events in post-communist Europe

present an intriguing puzzle. Over the last two decades, exemplary reformers

in Central Europe experienced dramatic re-alignments featuring conventional

parties’decline and illiberal resurgence. By contrast, some economic laggards

in the Balkans exhibited –despite developmental and corruption problems –

relatively predictable patterns of political representation and competition

among status-quo parties with a longer shelf life. The absence of a clear

association between economic progress, political reform, and liberal-

democratic institutionalization after 30 years of post-communism is unset-

tling, a reason why it has sparked interest in populism and illiberalism as

concerning symptoms of democratic dysfunction.

Why was the illiberal mix of culturally conservative and economically

leftist positions or posturing more electorally viable in some post-communist

democracies over the last two decades? Although a plethora of studies deal

with the illiberalism problem, they provide only a fragmented view of region-

wide institutional and ideological patterns. The main reasons for this have

been narrowness of comparative scope (mostly focusing on Hungary and

Poland), scarcity of appropriately measured concepts facilitating broader

comparisons, and lack of attention to linkages between historical contin-

gencies and subsequent institutional developments. Contrary to previous

scholarship, I argue that the origins of illiberalism, specif‌ied as an empirically

measurable phenomenon, can be traced back to concrete political dynamics

during post-communist neoliberal junctures, def‌ined as watershed periods of

market reform and welfare retrenchment occurring sometime after second

competitive elections. I demonstrate this by analyzing developments in 15

post-communist democracies, using expert survey and election data for the

1990–2020 period,

1

and tracing processes in concrete cases.

I develop the argument by drawing insights from scholarship on Latin

America, where junctures of adjusting the relationship between states and

markets in relatively recent history shaped subsequent institutional legacies

(Roberts, 2014). Yet while I apply insights cross-regionally,I do so crit ically –

by developing a theoretically novel probabilistic approach to critical juncture

analysis and underscoring concrete linkages between prior events and sub-

sequent outcomes. Specif‌ically, my two-step argument highlights reactive

sequences, opportunity structures, and institutional outcomes as legacies of

post-communist junctures. First, I contend that contingent political dynamics

shaped ensuing opportunity structures by conditioning the programmatic

positioning and variable electoral performance of traditional leftist parties.

Second, variable opportunity structures were either resources for or con-

straints on the electoral viability of illiberal parties with organizational ca-

pacities for adaptation and incentives to maximize contrarian legitimacy by

466 Comparative Political Studies 56(4)

strategically taking those economic positions that were most likely to be

electorally successful.

Concretely, I underscore how prior political dynamics condition variable

degrees of long-term popular uncertainty and affect illiberal political entre-

preneurs’subsequent strategic-choice incentives and electoral prospects.

Where popular uncertainty was highest due to the Left’s neoliberal turn after

bait-and-switch junctures, alienated voters were most likely to become a

resource for anti-establishment illiberal parties that strategically adopted

economically leftist banners as a viable electoral strategy. Conversely, where

uncertainty was low due to leftist parties’consistent positioning as credible

champions on socioeconomic issues after aligning junctures, their voters’

loyalty constrained anti-establishment parties’programmatic choices and

electoral prospects, meaning that the illiberal combination of cultural con-

servatism and economic leftism was less viable in the 21

st

century.

The study makes several contributions. First, it adds to foundational ar-

guments by critics of post-communist neoliberalism who early in the tran-

sition linked the rise of political illiberalism to economic liberalization efforts

that too often neglected workers and leftist voters (Greskovits, 1998;Ost,

2005). As more recent processes of illiberal autocratization challenge con-

ventional optimism attributing long-term democratic stability to swift liber-

alization, I also offer a nuanced analysis of early political conf‌igurations

which, in retrospect, may have contributed to democratic decay in some post-

communist countries. My contribution is not just empirical –because it

signif‌icantly expands the scope of inquiry, but also theoretical –because it

specif‌ies an explanatory mechanism rooted in recent history.

Second, as it identif‌ies path dependencies across the region, my argument

is both more historically grounded and general than recent studies of the Left’s

pro-market turn. Because it treats long-term interactive dynamics between

leftist parties and illiberal outcomes, the study also contributes to debates

about the relationship between concrete aspects of party system in-

stitutionalization and key divides of contestation in post-communist Europe.

Third, unlike most work on critical junctures, this study is an example not only

of how knowledge can be built based on cross-regional perspectives, but also

how a focus on historical contingencies and probabilities can help avoid the

“inevitability trap”of determinism (Dunning, 2017).

The f‌irst section describes the puzzle of post-communist illiberalism in the

context of relevant literature and proposes an alternative approach. The second

section develops a theory of contingent institutional development. The third

section not only offers an empirical analysis of developments across the region

but also traces the rise of illiberalism in the case study of Slovakia, which I

then compare to the shadow case of Czechia to illustrate why the proposed

theory is superior to rival explanations. The conclusion summarizes f‌indings

and implications.

Binev 467