Post 2014 Afghanistan: future battleground of Indo/Pakistan rivalry.

• Author: Dorschner, Jon P.

In May 2012, The United States and Afghanistan initialed a strategic partnership agreement committing the US and its ISAF partners to withdraw their combat troops from Afghanistan by 2014. The US plans to leave behind a residual force (estimated at 10,000) for the next decade to train Afghan forces and hunt down al Qaeda. This presents a policy dilemma for India. As the South Asian regional hegemon, India is committed to preserving the security of the nascent Afghan state. Terrorists based in Afghanistan and Pakistan have launched deadly attacks against India and it would view any deterioration in Afghan security as a threat.

According to South Asia expert Harish V. Pant, "India expects anarchy to intensify in the northwestern subcontinent, as insurgents in Afghanistan have been repeatedly successful in undermining local and international confidence in the viability of extant political structures in Kabul amidst the withdrawal of Western forces." (1) The power vacuum resulting from the departure of Western troops opens up the possibility that Afghanistan would resume its role as the battleground for continued warfare by forces backed by India and Pakistan.

While such a conflict is far from certain, India enjoys a number of distinct advantages over its Pakistani rival. India has made significant investments in Afghanistan post 9/11. It has pledged $2 billion in aid, making it Afghanistan's fifth largest donor. As of 2012, India has spent $1 billion in Afghanistan on a series of high visibility development projects throughout the country. The total value of bilateral trade has increased from $80 million in 2001 to $280 million in 2010. India sponsored Afghanistan's membership in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation in 2010 and in 2011 Afghanistan and India signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement calling for increased political, security, and economic cooperation. (2)

Although India is far from optimistic regarding the challenges facing the Afghan government after Western forces depart, it has made it clear that it is committed to Afghanistan and will not pack up and leave. Should the country again slide into civil war, India is prepared to resume support to its former partner the Northern Alliance in a conflict with a resurgent Taliban, and has started negotiations with Tajikistan to reopen the same Farkhor Airbase that it used to support Northern Alliance forces prior to 2001. (3)

Pakistan, as the founder and backer of the Taliban and its associated terrorist and insurgent groups, would be the key determinant in the post 2014 scenario. Should Pakistan decide to back an all-out Taliban offensive aimed at establishing a Taliban government in Kabul, India would be a key component of an anti-Taliban alliance likely to include Iran and Russia.

Indications are that there remains strong sentiment within the Pakistani military and its intelligence agency the Interservices Intelligence (ISI) for such a move. The previous PPP government of Asif Ali Zardari opposed such military adventurism and hoped to bring more stability to the South Asian region by pursuing normalization of...