Population projections assume lower fertility, Greater control of HIV.

AuthorHerro, Alana
PositionEYE ON EARTH - United Nations assessment - Report

By 2050, the world's population is projected to increase from 6.7 billion to 9.2 billion, according to the latest United Nations (UN) assessment. Declining fertility rates and increased longevity will lead to an aging population, the UN predicts in World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, which offers high, medium, and low projections of population change. The projections assume that fertility will continue to decline in the developing world and that efforts to both treat AIDS patients and prevent the spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) will expand.

The projected 2.5 billion increase by mid-century is the equivalent of the entire world population of 1950, and developing countries will bear nearly all the net growth, according to the UN. The total population in these countries is projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion by 2050. The industrialized world is expected to maintain its existing population of 1.2 billion through 2050--even with anticipated net immigration of 2.3 million people annually--and to nearly double its population aged 60 and over.

In these projections, fertility in less-developed countries is assumed to decline from 2.8 children per woman in the 2005-10 period to 2.1 in the 2045-50 period (roughly the number that would eventually stabilize a population with no net migration). UN demographers assume an even more...

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