Population patterns.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Population

The U.S. Census Bureau just released new population estimates for the state of Montana and each of its 56 counties. In 2002, Montana's population was estimated at about 909,500, up from the 902,195 reported in the 2000 Census of the Population. From 2000 to 2002, then, the population growth rate was 0.8 percent.

Several patterns begin to emerge as we compare the current population growth to that of 10 years ago, in the early 1990s. First of all, the overall rate of population growth between 2000 and 2002 was much less than that reported from 1990 to 1992. Secondly, when we examine Montana's counties in terms of their relative population growth, most of the areas that showed rapid growth 10 years ago continue to set the pace today.

The trend toward slower overall population growth is examined in Table 1. Between 1990 and 1992, Montana's population grew by 22,800 people. The corresponding number for 2000-2002 is an increase of 7,300. It takes but a quick glance at the remainder of Table 1 to identify the primary cause of the decline: There was significantly more net in-migration in the 1990s than there is today. Net in-migration totaled about 12,300 people during the 1990-92 period. Between 2000 and 2002, net in-migration was only 1,600 people.

There are always many factors affecting mobility and migration. But it now appears the severe recession that hit southern California in the early 1990s caused many people to flee to other Western states in search of employment. The mid- and late 1990s saw a rebound in southern California's economy and a corresponding reduction in the exodus. You can read more about the influx of Californians and what it did to the political make-up of Montana and other Western states in "How the Mountain West was Won by the GOP," Montana Business Quarterly, Winter 2002 (Vol. 40, No. 4).

The data in Table 1 also illustrate some of the fundamental demographic changes in Montana's population. For example, the decline in the number of births between 199092 and 2000-02 reflects the end of the "baby boomer echo," which includes the children of the post-war baby boom. This steady decline in births is one of the reasons many areas of the state are experiencing precipitous declines in school enrollment. The number of deaths also increased over this 10-year period, another reflection of the inevitable aging of the post-war baby boom.

Table 2 illustrates the second population trend: Relatively fast-growing counties in the 1990s...