Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions.

• Author: Shields, Michael P.

This book consists of nine articles, an introduction and a summary. It focusses on the impact of exogenous fertility on economic development. Each article surveys the literature and advances a view as to the appropriate way of analyzing an aspect of population and development. Interesting topics are covered and all of the chapters are well written.

While the economist's perspective dominates much of the discussion, a variety of views are included in the book. Chapter 2, is based on the theory of the demographic transition, which used to dominate the discussion of population and development. Chapters 3, 4, 5, 8 and 9 are based on an economic perspective, while chapters 1, 6 and 7 do not clearly fit into either approach. Not surprisingly, there is a diversity of opinion within the collection.

The first chapter, by Kaval Gulhati and Lisa M. Bates, provides a history of U.N. population conferences. It is critical of the early, 1974 and 1984, views of many countries and of the U.S. in particular. It is complementary of the recent, 1994, view of nearly all parties including the U.S.

Chapter 2, by Thomas W. Merrick, discusses long-term patterns and projections of population growth. It presents a largely anecdotal picture and defense of transition theory and explains population projections that are based on transition theory. The role of education and family planning are emphasized.

Chapter 3, Allen C. Kelley and William Paul McGreevey, does little to provide the historical perspective on population and development promised in its title. It concentrates on explaining and defending what the authors call the "revisionist view." In the revisionist view, the lagged relationship between births and per capita income has three phases. In the short run, births reduce per capita income. In the intermediate run, births may increase per capita income. The long run is not discussed. This view implies that an increase in fertility might actually enhance economic development. The argument is that technology and other factors of production respond to the increased labor force that higher birth rates eventually cause. Therefore, the macroeconomic relationship between fertility and economic growth is complicated and of uncertain direction.

In Chapter 4, Dennis Ahlburg discusses the complicated relationship between population growth and poverty. He concludes that, for both family and aggregate analysis, the evidence for a direct impact of high population growth on...