Population Growth and its Implications for Global Security

• Published date: 01 September 2016
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/ajes.12161
• Date: 01 September 2016

Population Growth and its Implications for

Global Security

By ROBERT J. WALKER*

ABSTRACT. Between 2015 and 2050 world population is projected to

increase by nearly 2.5 billion, rising from 7.3 billion to an estimated 9.8

billion. The vast majority of that projected increase—an estimated 97

percent—will occur in the developing world. Demography is not

destiny, but population growth in the developing world is a challenge-

multiplier. In recent decades, notable gains have been made in

reducing the incidence of hunger and poverty in the world, but

progress has been slow in countries with high fertility rates. The

nations with the fastest growing populations tend to rank high on

global indices of hunger, poverty, environmental degradation, and

fragility; and many of these countries face enormous obstacles to

economic development in the form of climate change, regional or

ethnic conflict, or water scarcity. Most of these countries also have large

numbers of unemployed young people between the ages of 15–24, a

demographic factor that can contribute to, or exacerbate, political

instability and conflict. Unless fertility rates in these countries fall faster

than currently anticipated by demographers, many of these countries

face an uncertain future. Lack of progress in improving living

conditions in these countries could lead to greater political instability

and conflict and increase the growing number of refugees and

internally displaced persons in the world.

*President of the Population Institute in Washington, DC, 2009–present. Previous

positions include: President of the Population Resource Center, Executive Director of

the Common Cause Education Fund, President of Handgun Control, Inc., and the

Center to Prevent Handgun Violence. On Capitol Hill for 14 years in the offices of

Rep. John B. Anderson and Rep. Morris Udall. Two years as Legislative Counsel for

the American Association of Retired Persons. B.A. (Economics), Rockford College;

J.D., University of Illinois School of Law. Attended University of Sydney, Australia, as

Rotary graduate fellow. Email: rwalker@populationinstitute.org

American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Vol. 75, No. 4 (September, 2016).

DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12161

V

C2016 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc.

Introduction

In the spring of 2008, retired General Michael Hayden, serving at the

time as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, gave a speech at

Kansas State University in which he identified “world demographics” as

one of three major trends shaping global security in the 21

st

century.

Hayden noted:

Today, there are about 6.7 billion people sharing our planet. By mid-century,

the best estimates point to a world population of more than 9 billion. Most of

that growth will occur in countries least able to sustain it, a situation that will

likely fuel instability and extremism, both in those areas and beyond.

Many poor, already fragile states—where governance is difficult today—

will grow rapidly. In Afghanistan, Liberia, Niger, and the Democratic

Republic of Congo, the population is expected to triple by mid-century.

The number of people in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Yemen will more than

double. Furthermore, all of those countries will have large concentrations

of young people. If their basic freedoms and basic needs—food, hous-

ing, education, employment, and so on—are not met, they could be eas-

ily attracted to violence, civil unrest, or extremism.

Through global migration, the impact of rapid population growth in

Africa, Southeast Asia, and elsewhere will be felt in the developed world

as well. Millions of young people from fast-growing, poorly developed

countries will emigrate—legally and illegally—in search of economic

opportunity, security, or political freedom. (Hayden 2008)

Eight years later, the demographic challenge described by General

Hayden is as formidable as ever. World population, which was esti-

mated by the Population Reference Bureau at 7.3 billion in 2015, is

now projected to increase to 9.8 billion by 2050, an increase of 2.5 bil-

lion in just 35 years (Population Reference Bureau 2015). The vast

majority of that increase, 97 percent, will occur in the developing

world, and much of it will occur in the “least developed countries” and

other highly impoverished areas that are ill-prepared to meet the needs

and demands of a rapidly growing population.

The degree to which rapid or unsustainable population growth con-

tributes to political instability and conflict is an age-old question.

Thomas Robert Malthus (1798) touched upon it briefly in his first essay

on population:

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