Population dynamics in Montana.

• Author: von Reichert, Christiane

Montana natives call them humming birds, lone eagles, equity refugees, and Californians. They move into Montana, buy five acres and a barn, join communities, and voice their opinions. They're a growing group of in-migrants who influence business, economics, and politics.

Whoever they are and whatever their origin, Montana has seen a huge number of newcomers in recent years, a complete turn around from the 1980s when everybody deserted the state in equally large numbers.

Figuring out who is coming to Montana is challenging; information is limited. The University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research and the geography department have been building a database to better analyze migration trends.

Our research tells us that while there are indeed humming birds, lone eagles, equity refugees, and Californians, almost 60 percent of the migrants to Montana have some sort of tie to the state. They've either lived here or have relatives living here. Contrary to popular opinion, Montana is not being invaded by Californians. Certainly, some Californians live here, but they may in fact be returning Montanans.

One way to determine who is moving to Montana is to analyze the state's age structure (Figures 1 and 2). Are the migrants young, middle-aged, or older? Are they business people, summer residents, or retirees?

[Figures 1-2 ILLUSTRATION OMITTED]

Also important in studying migration trends is determining where in Montana migrants are moving. We have found that population gains are unequal. The vast majority of migrants move to Western and Southwestern Montana.

In addition to analyzing Montana's age structure, this article examines each of the state's 56 counties to determine if they are declining or growing, and whether people are moving into or out of the counties. It also discusses whether population gains or losses occurred through natural change (births minus deaths) or through migration. Some Montana counties are experiencing natural growth, but little net-migration.

While several counties' rapid expansion is causing growth-management problems, others are becoming ghost towns. Many of Montana's counties are experiencing minimal growth or population lOSS.

Much of the debate about population change in Montana focuses on the surging population in the Western and Southwestern part of the state. The depopulation of Eastern Montana seems largely overlooked. Yet the population decline in a large number of counties with already small populations is perhaps the most concerning aspect of population dynamics in Montana.

It is important to understand Montana's migration trends and population dynamics in order to make the best decisions for Montana's future.

Migration Trends

Montana is currently the 14th fastest-growing state in the nation, a mirror image of the 1980s when it was the 15th slowest-growing state (Table 1). Between 1980 and 1990, Montana's population rose from 786,690 to 799,065--less than 2 percent in a decade. Between 1990 and 1996, the state's population increased by about 80,000 people to 879,372. In just six years, Montana's population grew by 10 percent, and two-thirds of that growth can be attributed to the influx of migrants to Montana.

Table 1 U.S. Population, Ranked From Fastest-Growing to Slowest-Growing States, 1990 - 1996

1990 1991 1992 United States 248,718,301 252,106,453 255,011,287 Nevada 1,201,675 1,285,597 1,333,901 Arizona 3,665,339 3,749,569 3,841,125 Idaho 1,006,734 1,039,079 1,066,893 Utah 1,722,850 1,767,139 1,811,673 Colorado 3,294,473 3,369,199 3,464,116...