The power of polls: a primer for generating, analyzing and using poll information.

• Author: Rose, Gene
• Position: TOOLS OF THE TRADE

Nearly three-quarters of Americans believe the country would be better off if public officials "paid more attention to public opinion," and 61 percent said the nation would be better off if leaders paid more attention to "polls."

This revealing information from a September 2005 Gallup poll shows that while Americans don't necessarily trust the science of polls--68 percent say the standard scientific practice of sampling 1,000 people can't accurately represent the views of the country--more than half agree that polls generally get the information right.

Some polls have been wrong. The most infamous one predicted Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election. Exit surveys in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections also came under criticism. But, generally, when polls are wrong it's because collection errors were made. The science behind polling keeps improving and, in fact, polls have proved to be a fairly accurate barometer of public opinion.

While polling data often are used to affirm or influence public opinion nationally, their use in statehouses appears to be limited. Legislators spend considerable time trying to convince their colleagues and the public that their views and legislative instruments are the best solutions to public policy issues. There's little evidence that many use polling or polling data to advance their issues, outside of unscientific surveys included in district mailings. Those that do use polling data tend to use it only for reelection purposes.

Policy advocates, on the other hand, are learning to use polling data to show that the public is behind them. In the weeks leading up to the 2007 state legislative sessions, for example, newspaper stories discussed poll results on renewable energy in Montana, education funding in New Hampshire, sin taxes in Wisconsin, civil unions in New Jersey, legislative reform in California, highways in Wyoming, manufacturing in Kentucky and stem cell research in Georgia. Competing interests in Minnesota released polls showing public support and rejection for a new NASCAR track.

James Surowiecki's popular book, The Wisdom of Crowds, explains the value and accuracy of public opinion when it is collected and analyzed properly. The collective wisdom of independent thinkers, he theorizes, often can result in better decisions on nearly any topic. Good polling data can help identify solutions the public would support.

The primary reason legislators and legislatures...