Politicized Battles: How Vacancies and Partisanship Influence Support for the Supreme Court

• Author: Miles T. Armaly,Elizabeth A. Lane
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X211064299
• Published date: 01 January 2023
• Date: 01 January 2023

Article

AmericanPoliticsResearch

2023,Vol.51(1)23–36

©TheAuthor(s)2022

Articlereuseguidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI:10.1177/1532673X211064299

journals.sagepub.com/home/apr

PoliticizedBattles:HowVacanciesand

PartisanshipInfluenceSupportforthe

SupremeCourt

MilesT.Armaly

1

andElizabethA.Lane

2



Abstract

SupremeCourtvacanciesarenowcharacterizedbygreatpartisaneffortstoconfirm—orimpede—thenomination.Amida

politicizedvacancybeforethe2020election,therewascausetoquestiontheconclusionthatthesevacanciesdonotharm

thejudiciaryinthepublic’seyes.WeutilizepaneldatacollectedbeforeandafterJusticeGinsburg’sdeathtoinvestigatethe

effectsofthevacancyandpartisanposturingtofillit.Wefindthatthebattleoverthevacancyyieldeddecreasesindiffuse

supportamongDemocrats,particularlyamongthosewhoreadastoryaboutSenateRepublicans’willingnesstofillan

election-yearvacancyafterrefusingtoin2016.Supportforfederaljudicialelectionsdecreasedacrosssurveywaves,but

onlyamongcertainsubsetsofrespondents.Finally,beliefthatone’spreferred2020candidatewouldnominatethenext

justicesignificantlyinfluencedsupportforcurbing.Electedbranchpoliticsappearcapableofinfluencingthemasspublic’s

levelofsupportfortheCourt.

Keywords

SupremeCourt,legitimacy,Court-curbing,vacancies,confirmations

Whenthen-SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnellsty-

miedPresidentBarackObama’snominationofMerrick

GarlandtotheSupremeCourtin2016,manycommentators

fearedforthelegitimacyoftheinstitution(e.g.,Millhiser,

2016).EventheChiefJusticeexpressedconsternationover

theCourtasapartisanfootball(Greenhouse,2017).Despite

theopenpolitickingtofillJusticeScalia’sseat,institutional

legitimacyseemedtoremainresolute.Infact,thechangesto

legitimacyappeartohavebeenincreasesinpositive

evaluationsoftheCourt,largelybecauselegitimizing

symbolsofthejudiciaryappeartoprotectitfromexternal

politicization(Armaly,2018b).WhiletheSupremeCourt

emergedfromtheGarland–Gorsuchsituationunblem-

ished,extremepoliticizationofthejudiciarywasnot

isolatedtotheScaliavacancy.TheverynextCourt

opening—JusticeKennedy’sretirement—wasfollowed

bytheintense,controversial,andlegitimacy-influencing

confirmationofBrettKavanaugh(Carrington&French,

Forthcoming).And,inthemidstofoneofthemostpo-

larizingpresidentialelectionsinAmericanhistory,Justice

Ginsburg’sdeathinSeptember2020demonstratedSenate

Republicans’eagernesstoschedulehearingsforherre-

placement,despitehavingsuggested4yearspriorthat

nominationsinanelectionyearareinappropriate.Inlight

ofthepoliticizingofthestaffingoftheCourt,thequestion

ofwhetherharmmaybefallthejudiciarywhentheelected

branchespoliticizetheCourtduringavacancyisfarfrom

settled.

Inthispaper,weutilizepaneldatacollected2weeks

beforeand1weekafterGinsburg’sdeath(thoughbefore

Barrett’snomination)todeterminewhether,andhow,an

extremelypoliticizedandpolarizednominationcaninfluence

massattitudestowardtheSupremeCourt.Werandomize

exposuretoinformationprominentinthenewsinthesecond

waveofourpanelstudytoaskwhetherGinsburg’sdeathand

thesubsequentvacancyinfluenceperceptionsofSupreme

Courtlegitimacyandsupportforaspecificvariantofbroad

Court-curbing(seeBartels&Johnston,2020):Federalju-

dicialelections(seeDavis,2005).Additionally,weconsider

howelectoralsupportinthe2020election,aswellasex-

pectationsregardingthefillingoftheSupremeCourtvacancy,

bearsonattitudestowardtheinstitution.

Wefindthatindividualsreactedtothevacancyintermsof

howtheybenefitedfromit,politically.Specifically,political

1

UniversityofMississippi,MS,USA

2

LouisianaStateUniversity,LA,USA

CorrespondingAuthor:

ElizabethA.Lane,PoliticalScience,LouisianaStateUniversity,205Stubbs

Hall,BatonRouge,LA70803-2804,USA.

Email:elane8@lsu.edu