Political ramifications of the economic crisis.

• Author: Hakim, Peter

"NO ONE CAN POSSIBLY KNOW how long the current recession will last or how deep it will go." That is the view of Nobel Economics Laureate Robert Solow, writing in the most recent NY Review of Books. What we do know is that the longer and deeper the economic crisis, the greater the prospects of drastic, far-reaching political changes in Latin America and elsewhere. Unsettled, erratic politics are the inevitable consequences of plummeting economies, rising joblessness, declining middle class incomes, expanding poverty and destitution, and multiple cutbacks in public services--all of which are now forecast for the region. As in the past, government authorities will become targets of public anger and recrimination, and politics will likely become more polarized and combative.

The global crisis is already having an impact on politics and governance in some countries. Nations in Eastern and Central Europe have faced mass demonstrations and near riots. Public support for key Western European leaders--Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Jose Luis Zapatero--have plunged and their governments have weakened. Economic failure led to the fall of Iceland's government just last week.

So far, however, the political impacts have been hardly visible in Latin America and the Caribbean, probably because the crisis arrived comparatively late to the region. Certainly no clear patterns have yet emerged. In some countries, public approval of national leaders has risen even as their economies have begun to slide. In Colombia and Mexico, attention has remained focused on other issues. In Chile, President Michelle Bachelet and Finance Minister Andres Velasco have recently surged in opinion polls, apparently because Chileans appreciated that their country's economy, although slipping, was doing much better than other economies in the region. President Alan Garcia's rise in the polls suggests that Peruvians, too, recognize their relatively good economic performance.

As the Brazilian economy has slowed and unemployment has surged in recent months, President Lula da Silva has dropped some eight to ten points in opinion surveys, but he still boasts the unprecedented support of some 75 percent. Other incumbents--including Costa Rica's Oscar Arias, Uruguay's Tabare Vasquez, and the Dominican Republic's Leonel Fernandez--all retain high poll ratings. Even in El Salvador and Panama, where the opposition recently won the presidency, the incumbent presidents maintain a majority...