A policy for Ukraine.

• Author: Schindler, Sol

Some people think President Obama should have foreseen the Russian seizure of Ukrainian Crimea. They are right, of course. He should have foreseen it. We all should have foreseen it. World events are invariably related; nothing grows in a vacuum and so-called isolated events are mislabeled. The Russian invasion of Ukraine had ample precedence and could have been foretold by anyone willing to ignore slogans and learn from experience.

In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia to protect, it stated, ethnic Russians living there. After a brief war it separated certain areas from Georgia for inclusion into the Russian federation, leaving a remnant Georgian government sufficiently browbeaten to offer no resistance to Russian hegemony. The Bush administration protested, and imposed some minor sanctions which served to express its displeasure but did not change Russian action. When Barack Obama was elected president, his administration dropped the sanctions in an effort to inaugurate an era of mutual good will and constructive interchange. A year later the Syrian civil war began and in the ghastly diplomatic chess game that accompanied it, the Syrians with the aid of their allies, Russia and Iran, ran rings around us. It soon became apparent to anyone paying attention that the United Sates was in no mood to assert itself or do much of anything even regarding its own national interest. The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, is not exactly a diplomatic genius but he has the gambler's aptitude of knowing when risks can be taken without undue danger. He has taken advantage of the situations that occurred and presented us with a fait accompli.

We responded in our usual fashion. President Obama gave a speech expressing his outrage and pointed out that Russia was losing the international community's respect and friendship because of its actions. Secretary Kerry gave several speeches deploring Russia's violations of international law and reminding Russia that we now live in the 21st Century as if somehow that made a difference. Speeches are a vital part of international diplomacy but if all they do is express the speaker's emotions divorced from any plan of action they are somewhat less than useful.

Russia's economic strength lies in her abundance of oil and natural gas. She is the major, often the sole, supplier of these essential resources to a number of countries, including Ukraine. With petroleum selling for more than one hundred dollars a barrel she has the wealth...