Polarization Without Poles: Machiavellian Conflicts and the Philippines’ Lost Decade of Democracy, 2000–2010

• Author: Aries A. Arugay,Dan Slater
• Date: 01 January 2019
• DOI: 10.1177/0002716218810385
• Published date: 01 January 2019
• Subject Matter: III. Democratic Careening and Gridlock

122 ANNALS, AAPSS, 681, January 2019

DOI: 10.1177/0002716218810385

Polarization

Without Poles:

Machiavellian

Conflicts and

the Philippines’

Lost Decade of

Democracy,

2000–2010

By

ARIES A. ARUGAY

and

DAN SLATER

810385ANN The Annals Of The American AcademyPolarization without Poles

research-article2018

The Philippines’ long democratic experience has been

remarkably free of deeply politicized cleavages. Roman

Catholicism as a hegemonic religion prevents religious

polarization, ethnic identity fragmentation limits ethnic

polarization, and weak parties forestall ideological or

class polarization. Nevertheless, the country suffered a

crisis of polarization during the short-lived Estrada

presidency (1998–2001) and that of his successor,

Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (2001–2010). The severe

conflict was a product of power maneuvers by anti-

Estrada forces, followed by anti-Arroyo actors return-

ing the favor, given her gross abuses of power. Echoing

Machiavelli’s famous distinction, the conflict pitted

Estrada’s popoli (the many) against Arroyo’s oligarchic

grandi (the few). This Machiavellian conflict ended

with an oligarchic reassertion of Madisonian demo-

cratic rule through the electoral victory of Benigno

Simeon Aquino III in 2010. We conclude the article by

considering whether the populist challenge of current

president Rodrigo Duterte (2016– ) might spark a

similarly destabilizing conflict in the years to come.

Keywords: polarization; elite conflict; democratiza-

tion; people power; Philippines

For a diverse and sprawling archipelagic

nation, the Philippines has long been

remarkably free of deep political cleavages

along class, religious, ethnic, or ideological

lines. Though it is beset with a protracted

Maoist-inspired communist insurgency and a

Aries A. Arugay is an associate professor of political

science and holds the One University of the Philippines

Professorial Chair in Comparative Democratization.

He is also co-convenor of the Strategic Studies Program,

Center for Integrative and Development Studies,

University of the Philippines.

Dan Slater is a professor of political science and the

Ronald and Eileen Weiser Professor of Emerging

Democracies and director of the Weiser Center for

Emerging Democracies (WCED) at the University of

Michigan. He was previously a professor of political

science and sociology for 12 years at the University of

Chicago.

Correspondence: aries.arugay@upd.edu.ph