Plea Bargaining and Trial Decisions in Context: An Examination of Disparities in Punishment

• Author: Porche’ A. W. Okafor,Patricia Y. Warren,Eric A. Stewart
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10439862221111013
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10439862221111013

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice

2022, Vol. 38(4) 432 –455

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/10439862221111013

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Article

Plea Bargaining and Trial

Decisions in Context:

An Examination of Disparities

in Punishment

Porche’ A. W. Okafor1, Patricia Y. Warren2,

and Eric A. Stewart2

Abstract

Racial and ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system have been well documented

in prior research. Despite this, few studies have explored the extent of disparities

after accepting a plea bargain compared with proceeding to trial. The distinction

between plea bargaining and going to trial is highlighted because judicial officials

are more constrained by the law when making punitive decisions following a trial.

Thus, there should be fewer disparities in punitive outcomes among defendants who

went to trial. Using Florida Sentencing Guidelines data from 2010 to 2017 combined

with county-level data from the 2010 United States Census, the current study

contributes to prior research by investigating whether the size of the Black and

Latino populations influences disparities in punitive outcomes among Black, White,

and Latino defendants after accepting a plea bargain and going to trial. The results

suggest that Blacks sentenced in counties with a growing Black population are less

likely to receive a jail sentence but more likely to receive a prison sentence after

accepting a plea bargain. However, they are less likely to receive a prison sentence

after proceeding to trial when sentenced in areas with a larger share of Black

residents. In contrast, Latino defendants who accept a plea bargain are more likely to

receive a jail sentence but less likely to be sentenced to prison in areas with a growing

ethnic presence. Furthermore, Black defendants sentenced in areas with a change

in Black populations receive shorter sentences after accepting a plea bargain. Our

analyses provide an intricate story about race/ethnicity, place, and threat in the state

of Florida. Overall, the results show that the social context matters, but differently

pertaining to punishment outcomes disposed of by plea bargains and trials.

1Le Moyne College, Syracuse, NY, USA

2Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA

Corresponding Author:

Porche’ A. W. Okafor, Department of Anthropology, Criminology, and Sociology, Le Moyne College, Le

Moyne College 1419 Salt Springs Road, Syracuse, NY 13214, USA.

Email: whitbyp@lemoyne.edu

1111013CCJXXX10.1177/10439862221111013Journal of Contemporary Criminal JusticeOkafor et al.

research-article2022

Okafor et al. 433

Keywords

racial threat, sentencing, modes of disposition, race/ethnicity

Introduction

Racial and ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system have been well documented

in prior research (see Feldmeyer et al., 2015; Johnson, 2019; Mitchell, 2005;

Steffensmeier & Demuth, 2000; Zatz, 2000). Although some scholars note that the

observed disparities reflect differential rates of offending, others note that the stable

disparities across criminal justice decision points potentially reflect other processes

like the mode of disposition (i.e., plea bargain and trial) (Albonetti, 1990; Kutateladze

et al., 2014; Spohn & Holleran, 2000; Steffensmeier & Demuth, 2006; Wooldredge

et al., 2015). In his work, Johnson (2003) highlights the importance of the mode of

disposition in producing disparities because of the discretion utilized by different

courtroom actors (see also Padgett, 1985; Tonry, 1996). Prosecutors, for example,

have significant influence on the plea bargaining decision and to the extent that minor-

ity defendants are offered pleas with more severe punitive sanctions, it will have a

substantial impact on racial and ethnic variation in the incarceration and sentence

length decisions.

Recently, scholars have devoted more attention toward understanding how plea

bargaining and trials impact variation in punitive outcomes (Kutateladze et al., 2014;

Lehmann et al., 2018). Lehmann et al. (2018) found that among juveniles transferred

to adult court, disparities were weaker and smaller among cases that went to trial com-

pared with those that accepted pleas. The process of deciding when to enter a plea

agreement with the hopes of receiving a lighter sentence may operate differently for

minority defendants. For example, Frenzel and Ball (2008) argued that minority defen-

dants often hold lower levels of legitimacy and trust in the criminal justice system. As

a result, they may be more likely than other groups to take their chance at a trial with

the goal of appealing to their fellow peers or to the judge. In another study, Metcalfe

and Chiricos (2018) found that Black males were most disadvantaged in a system that

relied more heavily on plea bargaining (see also Kellough & Wortley, 2002).

The current study revisits the mode of disposition and its impact on disparities

in punishment outcomes by situating the plea bargaining and trial outcome deci-

sions within a broader macrosocial context. Utilizing the racial and ethnic threat

perspective, we examine whether the effect of the mode of disposition on the

punitive decision for Black, White, and Latino defendants is influenced by the

size of the Black and Latino populations. The racial and ethnic threat perspective,

first articulated by Blalock (1967), posits that as the minority population increases

(or is perceived to have increased), Whites feel threatened and believe their power

is being jeopardized. Thus, they defend their positions by using increased social

control measures, such as arrests and incarceration, to control minority popula-

tions (Blalock, 1967; Eitle et al., 2002; Feldmeyer et al., 2015; Johnson et al.,

2008; King & Wheelock, 2007). In the context of punishment, the salience of