The perils of success: polls put Democrats in the lead, but victories in 2006 mean it will be a tough fight to take over more statehouses.

• Author: Storey, Tim
• Position: Cover story

It is hard to find a Democrat who isn't bullish about the party's chances in legislative elections this fall.

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They cite President Bush's low job approval ratings and polling data indicating voters prefer generic Democratic candidates to Republicans by more than 10 percent. A large majority of Americans think that the country is on the wrong track, according to polls, so the Democratic message of change may be a powerful rallying cry. However, the biggest challenge for Democrats may be their success in 2006.

Republican political strategist Reed Galen agrees this year appears to favor Democrats, conceding that "the Republican brand is damaged goods right now." But, he adds, "a week is a lifetime in politics and three months is an eternity."

Anything can happen before Nov. 4, and Galen is optimistic. "They have to believe they can turn it around and work hard to make the race about local issues."

In terms of legislative seats, there may be few easy targets left for Democrats after they scored big gains in the last election cycle. Democrats picked up more than 325 seats and 10 legislative chambers in 2006. They now hold just under 55 percent of all legislative seats. It is the high mark for Democrats since Republicans crushed them in 1994 and brought partisan parity to legislatures for most of the past decade.

Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report, agrees the outlook for additional Democratic gains is good. "I think optimism by Democrats is understandable because of the numbers--whether it's fundraising, polling or projected turnout, Democrats hold a big advantage," he says. "If Democrats don't score a boatload of victories in congressional, Senate and state races, I'll be shocked."

Then again, Cook admits "the political pundit class has been so wrong about so much in the past year" that anything can happen.

SEATS UP IN 2008

With only a small number of governor races in 2008, legislatures are the main battlefield for control of states. There are legislative elections in 44 states with a total of 5,824 legislative seats up for grabs. That represents 79 percent of the 7,382 total legislative seats in the United States. In addition, 78 legislative seats are up in Puerto Rico, 20 in American Samoa and all 15 Senate seats in the U.S. Virgin Islands. There are no legislative elections this year in Alabama, Louisiana, Mary land, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia. In Michigan and Minnesota, there are no senate elections, but all house seats are up.

Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia elect governors this year. Most are not considered competitive, with the exception of Missouri and Washington. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato rates both as toss-ups. Headed into 2008, Democrats control the governor's mansion in 28 states and Republicans in 22. In the 11 states up this year, Democrats hold six of the governors and Republicans five.

PARTISAN LANDSCAPE

The Democratic advantage in governors is matched in legislatures. Democrats control both chambers in 23 states compared to 14 for Republicans. In 12 states, party control is divided. (The Nebraska Legislature is both nonpartisan and unicameral.) The last time Democrats controlled more than 23 states was before the 1994 election, when Republicans walloped Democrats by seizing the...