Perceptions of Immigrants as a Criminal Threat: The Role of Negative Affect and Ethnocentrism

• Published date: 01 January 2025
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/21533687221127447
• Author: Andrew J. Baranauskas,Jacob I. Stowell
• Date: 01 January 2025
• Subject Matter: Articles

Perceptions of Immigrants as

a Criminal Threat: The Role

of Negative Affect and

Ethnocentrism

Andrew J. Baranauskas

1

and Jacob I. Stowell

2

Abstract

A popular political narrative in the United States depicts immigrants as posing a crim-

inal threat to the nation. This perception persists despite research showing that immi-

grants do not increase crime rates and may actually contribute to lower crime rates.

This study seeks to examine the sources of the perception that immigrants increase

crime in the United States. Drawing from research in cognitive psychology, this paper

examines the affect heuristic and ethnocentrism as cognitive mechanisms through

which personal feelings towards particular ethnic and religious groups shape the per-

ception that immigrants pose a criminal threat. Using data from a nationally represen-

tative election study, f‌indings reveal that negative feelings towards illegal immigrants,

Hispanics, and Muslims are associated with the perception that immigrants increase

crime rates in the U.S. Among white respondents, ethnocentrism is also associated

with the perception that immigrants pose a criminal threat, even when controlling

for feelings towards Hispanics and Muslims specif‌ically. Implications for theory and

research are discussed.

Keywords

immigration, race and public opinion, ethnocentrism, affect heuristic, perceptions of

immigrants

1

Department of Criminal Justice, SUNY Brockport, Brockport, NY, USA

2

School of Criminology and Criminal Justice Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA

Corresponding Author:

Andrew J. Baranauskas, Department of Criminal Justice, SUNY Brockport, 350 New Campus Drive,

Brockport, NY 14420, USA.

Email: abaranauskas@brockport.edu

Article

Race and Justice

2025, Vol. 15(1) 92-118

© The Author(s) 2022

Article reuse guidelines:

sagepub.com/journals-permissions

DOI: 10.1177/21533687221127447

journals.sagepub.com/home/raj

Immigration and crime are two important political issues that are tinged with racial

sentiment. Political candidates across the spectrum have used both to rally support

for their campaigns. The two are often linked: politicians have cited the criminal

threat posed by immigrants, especially undocumented migrants who are in the U.S.

without proper visas, as a justif‌ication for restrictive immigration policies. This was

evident in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, when Republican candidate Donald

Trump decried the violent nature of Mexican and Muslim migrants as necessitating

measures like the construction of a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border and a ban on

Muslims entering the country (Diamond & Murray, 2015; Liptak, 2018; Reilly,

2016). The perception that immigrants pose a criminal threat is a popular one in

American public opinion.

However, research has shown that immigration as a social process is not associated

with higher levels of crime (Adelman et al., 2017; Martinez, Iwama, et al., 2015;

Martinez, Stowell, et al., 2010; Stowell et al., 2009; Ousey & Kubrin, 2009, 2015;

Sampson, 2008). As summarized by Ousey and Kubrin (2018), the overall

immigration-crime link is negative, meaning areas with larger immigrant populations

tend to have signif‌icantly lower levels of crime (although the association is weak).

Studies focusing on criminal involvement among foreign-born individuals are consis-

tent with this broader f‌inding (Bersani, 2014; Butcher & Piehl, 1998b; Mears, 2001).

Compared to their native-born counterparts, immigrants are signif‌icantly less likely to

engage in criminal behavior, although this likelihood increases for members of the

second generation (i.e., the children of immigrants) (Bersani, 2014). Findings from

individual-level studies are consistent with those reported in the macro-level research,

which undermine the popular sentiment suggesting a strong, positive relationship

between immigration and crime.

Why, then, do people perceive immigrants as a criminal threat? The underlying

racial implications of immigration narratives may play a role. Research suggests that

Hispanic resentment and white nationalism play a role in shaping the perception

that immigrants are particularly criminal (Kulig et al., 2020). Research has also exam-

ined community-level factors through the lens of minority threat theory to determine

the sources of this perception. While objective community conditions –such as the

size of the Hispanic population –are not associated with the perception of criminal

threat from undocumented immigrants, subjective community conditions –such as

the perceived size of the undocumented immigrant population –are likely to play a

role in bolstering the perception that these immigrants pose a criminal threat (Stupi

et al., 2016; Wang, 2012). Thus, the perception that immigrants pose a criminal

threat is not based on objective assessments, but rather views on the ethnic groups

associated with immigration.

The current study seeks to expand upon this work by examining individual-level

racial sentiments that are associated with Americans holding the perception that immi-

grants increase crime in the U.S. Since American crime narratives have historically

been implicit racial narratives (see Beckett & Sasson, 2004; Alexander, 2012), it is

possible that racial attitudes shape the perception that links immigration to crime.

Drawing from research in cognitive psychology and political science, we use

Baranauskas and Stowell 93