Pentagon mulls strategy for next arms race.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: Defense Watch

The democratization of technology should be something to celebrate. Not so much at the Pentagon, which is seeing its stranglehold on cutting-edge weaponry slip as more countries and potential adversaries stock up on shiny objects that used to be only available to the U.S. military.

The idea that the United States might see its overwhelming dominance in weapons technology erode is hard to comprehend, however, given the enormous spending gap between the Pentagon and everyone else. In fact, notes the Defense Department's chief weapons buyer Frank Kendall, U.S. superiority has now become a double-edged sword because it has made the country--and its policy makers--complacent.

"When I talk to people on the Hill and I mention that I'm concerned about technological superiority--particularly modernization programs of countries like China and Russia--I get a reaction that is sort of surprise, first, and disbelief perhaps as well," Kendall tells an industry gathering. He is especially worried about China as that nation is determined to invest in armaments that could neutralize current U.S. advantages in areas such as electronic warfare, stealth and space. "China's budget is growing about 12 percent a year," Kendall says. "It's not as large as the United States' by any stretch of the imagination, but at the rate it's growing it will be before too many years go by."

So what does the Pentagon plan to do about this? It is not entirely clear yet. The Defense Department for various reasons has struggled to get its modernization house in order. Budget cuts and short-term funding measures have slowed things down. A lack of vision also has been a problem. Programs are championed one day and canceled the next. Internecine rivalries at the Pentagon complicate efforts to develop cohesive modernization plans as money invested in one program might come at the expense of another.

How the Pentagon will spend its annual $150 billion to $160 billion weapons modernization budget is now at the center of a sweeping review of defense programs led by Deputy Secretary Robert Work, a long-time analyst and historian of military technology.

Work suggests that the military's current technology challenge demands big and bold investments by the United States in order to jump way ahead of everyone else. This was done during the Cold War, when U.S. planners figured out how to offset" the Warsaw Pact's much larger conventional forces with nuclear weapons. That advantage did not last...