Pentagon's new jet fighter epitomizes budget dilemmas.

• Author: Erwin, Sandra I.
• Position: DEFENSE WATCH

Beltway prognosticators warn that the military's priciest procurement programs will be the biggest casualties of the looming Pentagon budget wars expected to erupt following the draw-down of U.S. forces in Iraq.

Among the Pentagon's largest weapons procurements, and one that is sure to be closely watched is the Joint Strike Fighter.

The ultimate fate of the $300 billion jet fighter will not be known for at least several years. But the JSF, indeed, will serve as a test case for the broader budget dilemmas that the Pentagon will face.

A projected withdrawal of U.S. forces in Iraq beginning next year-and a subsequent transition to a new administration--undoubtedly will reopen a major debate about future defense spending and, specifically, the outlook for many of the Pentagon's big-ticket weapon procurements.

The prospect that the huge defense buildup of the past five years is coming to an end is setting the stage for what could be tough questions about how the Pentagon will afford expensive weapons systems such as JSF while its budget is stretched by soaring personnel and health care expenses, and by costly maintenance and repairs of aging equipment.

The JSF, more than any other Pentagon weapon system, symbolizes the unsurpassed military might of the United States and the American way of war that is dominated by air power. The program includes nearly 2,500 high performance fighter jets for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps and U.K. Royal Navy, in addition to several other countries that have made tentative commitments to buying it.

But it is no secret that the military services already are drawing up contingency plans in anticipation of potential cutbacks--or even outright cancellation--of JSF procurements. Just because the program is called "joint" does not mean the services are united behind it. So far, the Air Force appears to have the strongest chance of getting JSF off the ground and into full production. The Navy is said to be giving serious consideration to canceling the program or at least delaying it until it can afford it. While the Air Force's version of JSF already is in the prototype stage, the Navy's still is in the early phases of design. The Marine Corps' variant--a vertical takeoff jet that also is being funded by the United Kingdom--has seen a major redesign and is far from reaching production.

While both Navy and Marine Corps officials have stressed that JSF is their desired aircraft, both services are seeking funds to shore...