Pennsylvania in 2018: How Redistricting Does and Doesn’t Make a Difference

• Published date: 01 June 2021
• Date: 01 June 2021
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0160323X211025101
• Subject Matter: Field Notes

Field Notes

Pennsylvania in 2018:

How Redistricting Does

and Doesn’t Make a Difference

William D. Hicks

1

and Seth C. McKee

2

Abstract

In this Field Note, we use precinct- and individual-level data on Pennsylvania to assess whether

congressional redistricting influenced voter preferences in the 2018 midterm. Despite redistricting

vastly altering the distribution of voters in House districts, this did little to change their preferences.

Rather, redistricting contributed to Democratic House gains primarily by configuring a handful of

districts to be more favorable to the Democratic Party. The evidence for minimal direct effects of

redistricting on voter preferences, despite the presence of national political conditions breaking

strongly in favor of Democrats, speaks to the increasing nationalization of American elections and

with it, a concomitant decline in the incumbency advantage.

Keywords

redistricting, Pennsylvania, nationalization, incumbency advantage, 2018 elections

In this Field Note, we use precinct- and

individual-level data on Pennsylvania to assess

whether congressional redistr icting influenced

voter preferences in the 2018 midterm. Despite

redistricting vastly altering the distribution of

voters in House districts, this did little to

change their preferences. Rather, redistricting

contributed to Democratic House gains primar-

ily by configuring a handful of districts to be

more favorable to the Democratic Party. The

evidence for minimal direct effects of redis-

tricting on voter preferences , despite the pres-

ence of national political conditions breaking

strongly in favor of Democrats, speaks to the

increasing nationalization of American elec-

tions and with it, a concomitant dec line in the

incumbency advantage.

The primacy of party is the story of Ameri-

can politics in the twenty-first century. It used

to be fairly common to find states and districts

represented by congresspersons not affiliated

with the party winning the presidential vote

(Stonecash 2008). Not anymore. In this current

age of nationalization (Hopkins 2018; Jacobson

2021), as the presidential election goes, so typi-

cally goes the results of congressional contests

(Jacobson and Carson 2020). This development

speaks to the increasing alignment of partisan-

ship with ideology (Levendusky 2009); the

1

Department of Government and Justice Studies, Appalachian

State University, Boone, NC, USA

2

Department of Political Science, Oklahoma State University,

Stillwater, OK, USA

Corresponding Author:

Seth C. McKee, Department of Political Science, Oklahoma

State University, 220 Social Sciences and Humanities,

Stillwater, OK 74078, USA.

Email: mckee@okstate.edu

State and Local GovernmentReview

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DOI: 10.1177/0160323X211025101

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2021, Vol. 53(2) 172–\ 180