A Peek at the New Millennium: Optimism Tempered by Realism.

• Author: KREYCHE, GERALD F.
• Position: Brief Article

The twentieth century saw more development and rapidity of change than any before it. Most was classified under the rubric of progress, although some doubts have been cast in that direction. It also produced many devastating wars.

The consumer world saw textiles, once made only from natural materials such as cotton and wool, replaced by synthetics. Plastics have been substituted for much metal and wood. Early wanton abuses of nature have given way to an environmental ethic which all but sanctifies it. Energy needs are now fulfilled in part by nuclear power, and previous labor-intensive activity has been replaced by computerized machinery. What does the new century have in store for us? Whatever it is, we should proceed with caution, as there are no free lunches. Newton's law that "for every action there is an equal and opposing reaction" still rules the roost.

Technology surely will continue its meteoric rise, but, with it, one will find increasing depersonalization. Automatic phone answering services asking us to press buttons 1, 2, 3, or # are symptomatic and uniformly hated. If we are put on hold, we are subject to elevator music or advertisements, a kind of forced feeding that is annoying at best, sheer torture at worst.

More work will be performed at home through the good graces of computerized networks. Yet, the need for socializing, even at one's job, remains basic. People should recall the adage that "it is not good for man to be alone."

The field of medicine continues to advance, and individuals are living longer and staying in better health. Meanwhile, the expenses for drugs and new equipment--both for diagnosis and treatment--are rising exponentially. Medicare is in serious trouble, as are Medicaid and socialized medicine the world over. (Canada and Sweden are prime examples.) Who will pay for all this is a priority question. The increasingly high percentage of seniors living longer cannot be supported by a diminished population of younger people. This is just one more example that what is good for some is not good for others. With the advent of HMOs, there is much discontent not only among patients, but doctors as well--so much so that the latter are unionizing to press their demands.

Biological experiments with stem cells that can turn into any kind of cell needed will be another boon. Organs will be restored and some limb replacements will be possible. It is not only the costs of this procedure that raise objections, but the...