Paths to our political future.

• Author: Bresler, Robert J.
• Position: STATE OF THE NATION

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY has been riding high in the polls, but it is a long, long way from May to November. Today's headlines rarely are tomorrow's. The economy may get stronger; unemployment may dip below nine percent; the health care bill may withstand constitutional challenges; and Osama bin Laden could be captured. Such events probably would assist the Democrats, but they will not change the general public dissatisfaction with the direction of the country. Yet, it remains unclear exactly what direction the public wants the country to take. Where then do we go? In very broad terms, them are three competing visions of the future:

The first vision is the Obama agenda with its belief in major government initiatives to revitalize the economy and continue American economic leadership. The components are familiar: a government reorganization of the health care system; an energy plan that discourages carbon use and subsidizes alternative energy; increased funding for education and infrastructure modernization; and a return to higher levels of capital gains and marginal income tax rates. These plans would put government spending at its highest peacetime percentage of gross national product, about 25%; increase the general level of taxation; and impose vast new regulations on the health care and energy sectors. This level of government intrusion has spawned the Tea Party movement and brought new alarms about the rising level of government debt.

The second vision is an emerging conservative small government agenda; its major advocate is a young Republican Congressman from Wisconsin, Paul Ryan, whose ambitious plans include, among other things: an alternate fiat income tax system; replacement of the corporate tax with an 8.5% business consumption tax; a refundable tax credit for individual and family health insurance; steep controls on discretionary government spending; and a partial privatization of Social Security and Medicare. Ryan believes that his plan would reduce government spending substantially, including the burgeoning entitlements, and would place greater individual control over health care and retirement decisions. For example, Ryan would replace the current Medicare system for those currently under 55--as they become Medicare-eligible--with a Medicare payment, initially averaging $11,000, to be used to purchase a Medicare certified plan. It would be adjusted to reflect medical inflation, and pegged to income, with low-income individuals...