Pakistan: can democracy survive?

• Author: Indurthy, Rathnam

ON Oct. 19, 1993, Benazir Bhutto took the oath of office as prime minister of Pakistan. After her late father, Zulfikar, she is the second person to be elected twice as prime minister. The election was fair and relatively peaceful, with very little loss of life. It may be that Pakistani voters wanted to send a loud message to the military that, henceforth, it should not undermine the democratic process in that country. (The military had ruled Pakistan for 24 years following independence in 1947.) It must have been sweet revenge for Bhutto after former Pres. Ghulam Ishaq Khan, in collusion with her arch rival, former prime minister and present opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, had dismissed her in the summer of 1990 for alleged corruption and incompetence.

Although democracy has been restored in Pakistan, it wouldn't be surprising if the political instability that has overwhelmed Pakistan in the past is repeated. Bhutto faces a multitude of formidable political, economic, and international problems and challenges that may not allow her to complete her five-year term. She heads a coalition government facing a tough opposition led by Sharif, whose party, the Pakistan Muslim League, controls 76 seats. Bhutto's People's Party won a small plurality of 86 seats in the National Assembly. Her party also formed a coalition government in Punjab, the largest province, accounting for 60% of the nation's nearly 120,000,000 people. However, as is often the case in many Third World countries, coalition governments usually do not last long because politicians--driven by the attraction of cash, power, and perks--tend to defect to other parties. Pakistani politicians' behavior is no exception to this tradition.

Bhutto opportunistically colluded with former rival Khan to bring down Sharif's government. It would not be surprising if the same sort of conspiracy is used against her regime. When Khan summarily dismissed her in 1990, she denounced him as a dictator, but when he did the same to Sharif in April, 1993, on the same grounds of alleged corruption and nepotism, she not only supported her one-time tormentor, but also let her husband, Asif Ali Zardri, join the interim government Khan had helped to put in place. That regime did not last long, though, as Sharif was restored to power in May, following the Pakistani Supreme Court's declaring the president's actions unconstitutional.

As this decision plunged the government into paralysis, the military, headed by Gen. Abdul Waheed, intervened, forced both Khan and Sharif to step down, and held elections on Oct. 6 and 8. Thus, the military, as in the past, became the final arbiter of a power struggle between Khan and Sharif. Bhutto owes her present job to the military's benevolence.

In her previous administration, Bhutto had so much difficulty in her dealings with the military and former Pres. Khan that she hardly was able to govern the nation. She accomplished very little as prime minister, especially in addressing the problems of the poor, who constitute more than 60% of the population. Even on such crucial issues as the production of the atomic bomb, she was ignored and kept in the dark by the military. She did not know that her country became a nuclear power until she was informed of it by the CIA in 1989. It was embarrassing for her to tell a joint session of the U.S. Congress that her nation did not possess a nuclear weapon and that it had no intention of developing one.

Although the military kept a low profile during the elections, if past history is any guide, it is unlikely that it will keep itself out of politics. The military has a history of intervention in Pakistani politics. For a very long time, it has been used to enjoying political power and perks. The Punjabidominated military believes it has a divine right to intervene in the politics of the country whenever it deems such action appropriate.

Seymour Hersh wrote in The New Yorker (March 29, 1994) that Pakistan...