Outlook for 2004.

• Author: Green, R. Jeffery

Every October, a group of faculty at the Kelley School of Business gathers to discuss the economic outlook for the nation and the state. The discussion begins with the latest forecast generated from the U.S. model developed at the Center for Econometric Model Research (CEMR) at Indiana University. A consensus is then generated around adjustments to the model forecast. The CEMR model of Indiana is used to translate the economic forecast for the U.S. into a forecast for Indiana.

The results of these deliberations are presented at many venues throughout Indiana where the faculty from the Kelley School are joined by a local panelist who discusses the outlook for that part of the state. The following articles summarize the views of the Outlook Panel. They also discuss some potential problems facing us, including a ballooning federal deficit, massive bilateral trade imbalances, and issues of corporate governance and reporting.

Bill Witte gives the details of the national economic forecast, showing that recent strength in consumer spending and housing will be augmented in 2004 by an upturn in business spending on plants and equipment, along with a rise in exports. Andreas Hauskrecht presents...