Opening “Openness to Change”

• Published date: 01 December 2013
• Date: 01 December 2013
• DOI: 10.1177/1065912913475874
• Author: Elias Dinas
• Subject Matter: Articles

475874PRQXXX10.1177/1065912913
475874Political Research QuarterlyDinas
Article
Political Research Quarterly
66(4) 868 –882
Opening “Openness to Change”: Political © 2013 University of Utah
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Events and the Increased Sensitivity of
DOI: 10.1177/1065912913475874
prq.sagepub.com
Young Adults
Elias Dinas1
Abstract
The impressionable years thesis asserts that early adulthood is accompanied by increased attitudinal vulnerability.
Although there is tentative empirical evidence to support this idea, it remains unclear whether this sensitivity is due to
exposure to change-inducing circumstances, typically encountered in early adulthood, or due to the weight attached by
young people to new information. I address this question, focusing on a political event—the Watergate—that offers a
test of youth’s heightened susceptibility, holding exposure constant. The results confirm the impressionable years thesis
and shed light on how it is most likely to be manifested empirically.
Keywords
political learning, impressionable years, attitudinal change, political events, Watergate
A widespread intuition in political socialization research
parental home, enter in the workplace and/or in a univer-
is that the crossing from the early years of adulthood to
sity environment, find a spouse, and eventually settle
middle age comes with significant gains in attitude
down. Throughout this process, they are exposed to vari-
strength. Also known as the “impressionable” (Sears
ous political stimuli, some of which are likely to operate
1981), “formative” (Lang and Lang 1978), or “critical”
exogenously (Highton and Wolfinger 2001, 203; Mutz
(Schuman and Scott 1987) years, the period of early
and Mondak 2006). Under this perspective, early adult-
adulthood is seen as a laboratory in which political opin-
hood operates as a channel of potentially cross-cutting
ions, beliefs, and predispositions are challenged, political messages.
amended, and eventually crystallized. Young individuals,
The second line of argument emphasizes the way in
still in this life stage, are thus more labile in their attitudes
which new political information is incorporated during
and opinions.
early adulthood (Alwin and McCammon 2007; Delli
Although this idea is deeply rooted in various accounts
Carpini 1989; Krosnick and Alwin 1989). Early adult-
of political learning (Sears 1983), two crucial questions
hood is deemed to be particularly important not because
have remained unanswered. First, there is pronounced
of the amount and type of political cues received in that
uncertainty about the actual meaning and possible behav-
period but rather because of the weight young individuals
ioral manifestations of youth sensitivity. As Delli Carpini
attach to them. Karl Mannheim ([1929] 1952) referred to
(1989) points out, this problem not only stems from lack
this phenomenon as “the stratification of experience,”
of theoretical clarification but has also important implica-
also known in psychology as a “primacy effect”
tions for the empirical investigation of this phenomenon.
(Birnbaum 1974): although at any given point in time all
The second source of uncertainty relates to the mecha-
cohorts experience the same event, they respond differ-
nism driving age differences.
ently. For the old, this event constitutes another layer in
As Alwin, Cohen, and Newcomb (1991, 204–205)
their stock of political information. For the young, lack of
argue, the concept of “vulnerability to attitude change”
prior experience makes it more difficult to superimpose
encapsulates two different processes, that is, increased
exposure to change-inducing circumstances and what is
1University of Nottingham, University Park, UK
referred to as “youth susceptibility.” With regard to the
first, there is a greater density of significant life events in
Corresponding Author:
Elias Dinas, School of Politics and International Relations, University of
early adulthood and a wider spacing of such events later
Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK
on in life (Glenn 1980, 603). Young adults leave their
Email: elias.dinas@nottingham.ac.uk

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Dinas
869
this event on other early impressions (Schuman and
Corning 2012, 3).
Although both processes are important, only the second
gives to early adulthood an intrinsic role in the develop-
ment of political attitudes. Moreover, this is the mecha-
nism that is referred to as youth’s “openness to change”
(Alwin, Cohen, and Newcomb 1991, 24; Stoker and
Jennings 2008). It is thus crucial to disentangle the two
mechanisms. The existing literature, however, has not been
very informative in this respect. As Bartels (2001, 13)
notes, “[a]nalysts of generational politics have pointed to a
variety of potentially relevant psychological and sociologi-
cal processes, but have done little to pursue their specific
implications or even to distinguish clearly among them.”
This study tries to shed light on both these issues. With
regard to the first, I illustrate that there are two, nonmutu-
ally exclusive, manifestations of youth sensitivity. I argue
that previous studies have only captured one of them.
With regard to the second, I use a design that improves
our ability to examine youth sensitivity, despite different
levels of exposure. More specifically, I focus on a politi-
Figure 1. Idealized trajectory of attitudinal stability according
to four models of political learning
cal shock, the Watergate scandal, salient enough to ensure
that all individuals have received the information. Using
data that enable the identification of its effect on rela-
tively weak assumptions, I find considerable support for
(C. Franklin 1984). People are, thus, equally prone to
the hypothesis that young adults are more susceptible to
change regardless of the amount of accumulated political
new information. The analysis, however, indicates that
experience. This idea is also depicted in Figure 1 with a
this increased sensitivity is realized through only one of
horizontal line, parallel to the x-axis, although now at a
the two possible behavioral paths.
lower level to allow individuals to amend their political
viewpoints as a result of new information shocks.
Models of Political Learning
The third hypothesis, the running tally (Fiorina 1981),
postulates that change in attitudes tends to taper off
Despite the emphasis placed on the role of early adult-
(Carlsson and Karlsson 1970, 710). As prior political
hood in attitude formation, the “impressionable years”
experience gradually accumulates, the incremental effect
hypothesis is just one of the competing models of politi-
of new shocks declines. Achen (1992) formalized this
cal learning. Aided by Figure 1, I summarize the main
idea assuming, however, a constant marginal weight
challengers. The figure describes the individual probabil-
across the life cycle. Gerber and Green (1998) relaxed
ity of creating stable political orientations as people age.
this assumption, allowing recent shocks to be weighted
As the empirical analysis is confined to adults, the
more than older ones. The theory is graphically repre-
graphical illustration starts from the age of 18.
sented by the dashed forty-five-degree line in Figure 1.
The first hypothesis, persistence, finds its origins in
Contrast these theories with the impressionable years
The American Voter (Campbell et al. 1960) and posits
thesis (Alwin, Cohen, and Newcomb 1991, 126; Osborne,
that “the residues of early (preadult) socialization are
Sears, and Valentino 2011; Sears 1981), depicted in
relatively immune from attitude change in later years”
Figure 1 with a solid sigmoid curve. According to this
(Sears 1981, 184). According to this view, individuals
hypothesis, the process of immunization (McPhee and
form symbolic predispositions, which are more ideologi-
Ferguson 1962) or routinization (Delli Carpini 1989;
cal in nature and persist over time (Sears 1983, 89). More
Steckenrider and Cutler 1989) of political attitudes takes
specific and less symbolic attitudes may be more labile.
place during early adulthood and is characterized by a
The theory is depicted here with a horizontal (gray) line
cutoff point, in which firm political attitudes are estab-
denoting perfect attitudinal stability along the life span.
lished (Alwin and McCammon 2003). From then on, it
The second hypothesis, lifelong openness (Sears
becomes exponentially more difficult for new events to
1981, 183), allows attitudes to fluctuate with a uniform
update one’s priors. Bartels (2001) incorporated this idea
probability at all ages. This process implies that political
in his Bayesian learning model, allowing age-specific
messages are given equal weight during the life cycle
weights to new shocks.

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Political Research Quarterly 66(4)
Factors Causing Change in Political
marginal effects in the probability of a given new stimu-
Attitudes
lus to exert a significant influence on people’s political
outlooks (Ryder 1965, 848). Political psychologists have
This brief summary alludes to an obvious distinction,
further qualified this idea by focusing on the affective
namely, between two models that perceive change in the
character of individuals’ attitudinal profiles (Sears 1983).
level of attitudinal stability along aging (impressionable
The accumulation of political information generates an
years, running tally)...