Oil-flush Chavez begins to strut his stuff.

• Author: Leight, Jessica
• Position: Shaking Off El Norte - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez is not known for his discretion, caution, or political reserve. Yet the in-your-face leader travels with Lady Luck as he revels in the nation's ever-increasing oil wealth and the virtually unprecedented political and economic prominence that skyrocketing petrol prices have brought to Caracas. The Venezuelan strongman shows every sign of being prepared to strike out even more aggressively against any foe who he perceives as threatening his "Bolivarian Revolution"--namely, his plans for land reform, social justice, and the redistribution of wealth. Certain to seek re-election to a six-year term in the 2006 presidential race, Chavez is bolstering his domestic base through the aggressive expansion of the social programs that have won him the fierce loyalty of the nation's long-neglected lower-classes.

At the same time, Chavez is raising his international profile. He seeks to position himself as a major spokesman for the burgeoning center-left South American nations and as a statesman of hemispheric stature, fully capable of creating a counter-force to Washington's still powerful, if fading, influence in the region. It is an ambitious, and perhaps risky, two-tier game that Chavez plays. As long as he holds the trump card--the nation's huge oil reserves--Chavez may yet prove capable of winning at least this round in his confrontation with Washington.

If re-elected, he can rightfully claim one of the most stunning political trajectories seen in the hemisphere in recent decades: from his own failed coup attempt in 1992, followed by his being a victim of a near-successful military coup in 2002, to decisively winning the 2004 referendum, to his being a major progenitor of the grand design of Venezuela's (perhaps even Latin America's) political and economic future.

A major loser in the approaching US-Venezuela confrontation is likely to be US State Department Assistant Secretary Roger Noriega. The inept ideologue's myopic analysis, that Chavez's close ties with Castro require him to be either marginalized or eliminated, has had a catastrophic impact on Washington's ties to the rest of Latin America. It has brought such relations to their lowest point in years.

Among the most audacious, and perhaps the most ominous, moves made by Chavez has been his substantial and widely publicized purchases of arms both from Russia, which has sold Caracas 40 helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikovs, and from Brazil, whose President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, added a surprise twist to the long-awaited summit with Chavez by agreeing to sell Venezuela approximately two dozen Super Tucano light attack aircraft. Lula's move is particularly notable in light of the harsh criticisms, including a formal diplomatic demarche presented to the Russian embassy in Washington, that the Bush administration had leveled at Russia--one of its staunchest allies in the "war on terror"--after the earlier sales were announced.

For Lula to ignore these obvious warning signals and press ahead with the sale of aircraft to Venezuela, sealed at a highly visible regional summit during a period of increased tension, is perhaps the clearest signal in recent months that Brazil is ready and eager to openly challenge the United States' hegemonic power in Latin America.

New problems for Washington

In retrospect, the sale will no doubt represent a turning point in the regional...