The future of war for oil: the Caspian Basin and shifting US policy in Central Asia.

• Author: Perz, Nathan

Few would deny the truism that oil is the axis upon which US foreign policy turns. A great deal of print has been expended detailing the importance of Middle-Eastern oil reserves to the United States. Saudi Arabia, in many ways an unofficial US protectorate, is the key to preserving US oil interests in the Middle East. The Gulf, however, is a dangerous place; an eternal quagmire of conflict and intrigue. In order to secure the necessary oil without the high-maintenance, the US is looking beyond Arabia, beyond Kuwait and beyond Iraq. The US is looking to the Caspian Basin.

The Caspian Basin

Due north of the Persian Gulf lies another large body of water--the Caspian Sea. Until the 1990s, most of the lands surrounding the Caspian were firmly under the control of the Soviet Union. While under Soviet rule, the resources of this area remained largely untapped. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, numerous independent states emerged in the Caspian Basin: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Russia and Iran also maintain a strong presence in the area.

This region is significant because of the potential of its untapped oil and natural gas reserves. As of July 2002, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released new figures for the Caspian Sea region: (1).

The feeding frenzy

"Proven" reserves are those deposits believed to exist with a 90% degree of certainty. "Possible" reserves are deposits that are believed to exist with a 50% degree of certainty. Combining the two, the region may possibly have an oil reserve of 245 billion barrels of oil (bbl) and 579 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of natural gas. To provide perspective, the US has an estimated oil reserve of 28.6 bbl (as of 2000), while Saudi Arabia has the world's largest known reserve of 263.5 bbl (as of 2000). As a whole, the planet is believed to have a total remaining oil reserve of between 1,250 and 1,950 bbl. Clearly, Caspian oil re serves have great potential significance.

Oil companies from the US, Europe, China, an a Russia has been quick to move in. These companies frequently join with smaller local concerns to create large exploration and drilling operations. These multi-billion dollar ventures have already begun to reshape the political, as well as physical, landscape of the region.

In 1997, oil production in the Caspian region amounted to about 1.1 million barrels per day (mbd). This volume is predicted to increase to 4 mbd by 2010 and possibly 6 mbd by 2020. (2) This increase will also correspond to an expected decrease in production from many of the world's now producing oil reserves. As the most easily accessible portions of known reserves are consumed, that which remains will be more difficult and more expensive to extract. Also, the rapid industrialization of nations such as China, India and Brazil will cause the global rate of consumption to increase dramatically.

US interests

Obviously, as the world's greatest consumer of petroleum, the US has a vital interest in keeping the oil flowing. The US imports about 51% of its crude oil. This percentage is expected to increase to 64% by the year 2020. Maintaining oil supplies is vital for both the growth of the US economy and the functioning of an increasingly aggressive and imperialistic military policy.

This thirst for petroleum has been the primary motive behind the last 50 years of US policy in the Middle East. The Saudi monarchy has been maintained as a kind of pseudo-protectorate since World War II. Iran was a client state until the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Saddam Hussein in Iraq was "our man" until his ill-conceived adventure in Kuwait forced the US to turn him into the region's "super-villain." All of this to fuel the post-war economic growth in the US.

It would, of course, be the ultimate understatement to say that the Middle East is a troublesome place. Political ferment mixed with ethnic tension and religious fundamentalism have produced a volatile brew. Being involved in the Middle East is both...