Offending Trajectories in Violent Offenders: Criminal History and Early Life Risk Factors

• Author: André Tärnhäll,Jonas Björk,Märta Wallinius,Peik Gustafsson,Björn Hofvander
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X221086565
• Published date: 01 February 2023
• Date: 01 February 2023
• Subject Matter: Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X221086565

International Journal of

Offender Therapy and

Comparative Criminology

2023, Vol. 67(2-3) 270 –290

© The Author(s) 2022

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DOI: 10.1177/0306624X221086565

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Article

Offending Trajectories in

Violent Offenders: Criminal

History and Early Life Risk

Factors

André Tärnhäll1,2,3 , Jonas Björk4, Märta Wallinius1,3,5,

Peik Gustafsson1, and Björn Hofvander1,2,3

Abstract

The understanding of offending, and thus its possible prevention, is expanded through

longitudinal studies on criminal trajectories depicting early life risk factors. This

longitudinal study aimed to explore criminal trajectories, criminal histories, and early

life risk factors in a cohort of violent offenders. A Swedish nationally representative

cohort of male violent offenders (n = 266), clinically assessed while imprisoned aged

18 to 25, was followed through national registers from age 15 to 25–34. Substantial

differences in criminal histories between violent offenders and a matched comparison

group (n = 10,000) were demonstrated. Five trajectory groups were identified: four

persisting and one desisting. Although differences were observed between persisting

trajectory groups, a higher prevalence of early life risk factors was generally displayed

compared to the desisting, especially in conduct problems and experiences of out-of-

home placements. Neurocognitive ability and prevalence of ADHD and autism were

similar across trajectories. Severe early life risks highlight the population’s need for

early interventions.

Keywords

criminal behavior, violent offenders, longitudinal, group-based modeling, risk factors

1LU-CRED, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund University,

Lund, Sweden

2Department of Forensic Psychiatry, Region Skåne, Trelleborg, Sweden

3Centre of Ethics, Law and Mental Health, Department of Psychiatry and Neurochemistry, Institute of

Neuroscience and Physiology, The Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden

4Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund Universisty, Lund, Sweden

5Research Department, Regional Forensic Psychiatric Clinic, Växjö, Sweden

Corresponding Author:

André Tärnhäll, LU-CRED, Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Lund

University, Baravägen 1, 222 40 Lund, Sweden.

Email: andre.tarnhall@med.lu.se

1086565IJOXXX10.1177/0306624X221086565International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative CriminologyTärnhäll et al.

research-article2022

Tärnhäll et al. 271

The empirical study of offending trajectories furthers knowledge about the timing,

degree, and nature of criminal behaviors at the individual level (Nagin, 2005). Earlier

studies have found evidence of two to seven trajectories of antisocial, criminal, or

aggressive behaviors (Jennings & Reingle, 2012; Piquero, 2008). The “age-crime

curve” illustrates that criminal behaviors, on an aggregated level, begin in late child-

hood or early adolescence, peak in late adolescence, rapidly decrease in young adult-

hood, and dwindle in middle-adulthood (Farrington, 1986). Arguably (e.g., Moffitt,

1993), this age–crime relationship conceals two or more groups. Although one single

trajectory has been proposed (Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990), several developmental

paths to antisocial or criminal behaviors are commonly suggested (e.g., Farrington

et al., 2019; Frick & Viding, 2009; Loeber et al, 1993; Moffitt, 1993). Moffitt (1993,

2018) proposed two main developmental trajectories of antisocial behaviors: life-

course persistent (LCP) and adolescence-limited (AL). While the AL group closely

follows the age-crime curve, the LCP group follows a chronic antisocial course. The

LCP group is marked by neuropsychological deficits associated with a myriad of risk

factors unfolding in childhood, adolescence, and later, not present in the AL group.

LCP individuals, more often than others, experience difficult parent–child interactions

during childhood that worsen already present behavioral and temperamental issues.

These risks, in turn, increase the possibility of later adverse life events. The LCP path

is associated with early life risk factors (Moffitt & Caspi, 2001), and a life complicated

by health problems (Odgers et al., 2007).

The described prevalence of these two offender groups in the general population

varies considerably in the literature. In a review of 55 longitudinal prospective studies,

based on community samples, Jolliffe et al. (2017) found a prevalence of LCP offend-

ers ranging from 3% to 17%, and of AL offenders from 4% to 82%. For both groups,

negative life events, such as substance abuse, imprisonment, victimization, or educa-

tional failures, can have ensnaring effects, binding the person to an antisocial course

into adulthood with diminishing chances to change the lifestyle (Moffitt, 2018).

Evidence of an offending trajectory beginning in adulthood has been reported (e.g.,

Eggleston & Laub, 2002). However, Moffitt et al. suggest that the proposed adult-

onset group has had early life conduct problems that have gone undetected by police

(Beckley et al., 2016; Moffitt, 2018). Sampson and Laub’s (2003) study of life-course

offending found that, although childhood risk factors predicted levels of offending

moderately well, the same childhood risk factors did not produce distinct trajectories

of offender groups, in contrast to Moffitt’s (1993) typological approach. Further, they

described that offending rates dwindle with age even in highly active offenders.

Studies of offender populations (e.g., Jennings & Reingle, 2012) have, in line with

earlier predictions (Moffitt, 1993), supported the notion of at least one desisting and

one persisting trajectory. A large body of evidence points to a disproportionally small

group of offenders being responsible for the vast majority of the total burden of crime

(e.g., Martinez et al., 2017). It has repeatedly been found that the group responsible for

severe antisocial behaviors constitutes approximately 5% of the general population

(Vaughn et al., 2011). Within offender populations, those convicted of violent crimes

seem to constitute a particularly crime-prone population (Piquero et al., 2012), often