Offending Trajectories in an Australian Birth Cohort: Differences and Similarities Across Sex

• Published date: 01 June 2024
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/00938548241234373
• Author: Aydan Kuluk,Troy Allard,Carleen Thompson,James M. Ogilvie,Lisa Broidy
• Date: 01 June 2024
• Subject Matter: Articles

CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, 2024, Vol. 51, No. 6, June 2024, 807 –830.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/00938548241234373

Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions

© 2024 International Association for Correctional and Forensic Psychology

807

OFFENDING TRAJECTORIES IN AN

AUSTRALIAN BIRTH COHORT

Differences and Similarities Across Sex

AYDAN KULUK

TROY ALLARD

CARLEEN THOMPSON

JAMES M. OGILVIE

Griffith University

LISA BROIDY

The University of New Mexico

Despite the rise in female offending, we know little about how female offending patterns vary with age and how they compare

to those of males. In this study, we used linked administrative data from a 1983 and 1984 Australian birth cohort (N = 83,362)

to estimate offending trajectories separately for males and females and to examine how these patterns vary within and across

sex. Results indicated that there was significant heterogeneity within sex, with five offending trajectories identified separately

for both males and females. Males and females classified in chronic offending trajectories had the highest mean number of

offenses than all other groups, and Indigenous females were more likely than non-Indigenous males to populate chronic and

early adult-onset trajectory groups. The findings highlight the importance of recognizing the heterogeneity of female offend-

ing pathways to inform effective, targeted, and timely policies and interventions to reduce female offending.

Keywords: female offenders; life course; gender differences; trajectories; quantitative methods

AUTHORS’ NOTE: The authors thank the Queensland Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages, Department

of Youth Justice, Employment, Small Business and Training, Department of Child Safety, Seniors and Disability

Services, Queensland Police Service, and Queensland Department of Justice and Attorney General who pro-

vided the data for this project; and the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office for linking the data. The

authors gratefully acknowledge the use of the services and facilities of the Griffith Criminology Institute’s

Social Analytics Lab at Griffith University. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the departments

or agencies, and any errors of omission or commission are the responsibility of the authors. The research lead-

ing to these results (creation of the QCRC linked database) received funding from the Australian Research

Council grant no LP100200469. The industry partners on this grant were Queensland Health, Department of

Premier and Cabinet, Office of Economic and Statistical Research (Queensland Treasury), Department of

Communities, Queensland Police Service and Department of Justice and Attorney General. Correspondence

concerning this article should be addressed to Aydan Kuluk, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice,

Griffith University, 176 Messines Ridge Road, Mount Gravatt, Queensland 4122, Australia; e-mail: a.kuluk@

griffith.edu.au.

1234373CJBXXX10.1177/00938548241234373Criminal Justice and BehaviorKuluk et al. / Offending Trajectories

research-article2024

808 CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR

INTRODUCTION

While females constitute a smaller proportion of the offending population than males,

there has been a significant global increase in criminal justice system contact among females

(Beichner et al., 2022; Steffensmeier et al., 2023). Over the past decade, the number of

females in contact with the criminal justice system has increased by nearly 60% worldwide,

while the corresponding increase for males was 22% (Fair & Walmsley, 2022). Despite this,

we still know very little about the heterogeneous patterns and progression of female offend-

ing over the life-course. This makes it difficult to advance our theoretical understanding of

the role of sex in shaping the initiation and progression of offending and hinders our ability

to develop effective and developmentally appropriate policy and preventive initiatives. Our

study uses data from an Australian birth cohort to model sex differences in the initiation and

progression of offending. Our findings have implications for informing the timing and tar-

gets of intervention strategies, and promoting responses that are tailored to the unique needs

of justice system-involved girls and women.

The Australian context offers a unique and important setting for studying these dynam-

ics, particularly as they overlap with the overrepresentation of Aboriginal and Torres Strait

Islander people in the criminal justice system (respectfully referred to as Indigenous

Australians or Indigenous peoples herein). Such overrepresentation is intricately linked to

the historical injustices, systemic inequalities, and socio-economic adversities faced by the

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities (Cunneen, 2006; Gracey & King, 2009).

A closer examination of the intersectionality of sex and Indigenous status is required, as this

intersection plays a pivotal role in shaping different offending trajectories. As such, we also

aim to detail how the initiation and progression of offending might vary within different

male and female categories when we compare across Indigenous status.

DEVELOPMENTAL AND LIFE-COURSE THEORIES

Moffitt (1993) was among the first to theorize and identify heterogeneous patterns of

offending within and across individuals that unfold over time. Her influential taxonomy

theory (Moffitt, 1993) proposed that the age-crime curve is an aggregate pattern that

masks two distinct groups with unique age-related offending patterns: life-course persis-

tent (LCP) offending, which exhibits an early onset of offending that continues through-

out the life-course and adolescent-limited (AL) offending, which is characterized by

offending behavior that is restricted to adolescence. Moffitt (1994) asserted that, for both

males and females, the AL pathway is the most common. However, males dominate the

LCP pathway, with a male to female ratio of approximately 10:1 for childhood onset

offending (Moffitt & Caspi, 2001).

Subsequent research has demonstrated that Moffitt’s dual taxonomy theory does not suf-

ficiently explain the complexity and heterogeneity of offending trajectories (Sampson &

Laub, 2003, 2005);, especially for females (D’Unger et al., 2002). Silverthorn and Frick

(1999), for example, argue that girls are far less likely than boys to develop childhood-onset

conduct disorder because of tighter controls on their childhood behavior. As a result, they

suggest that conduct problems among girls do not present until adolescence but can still

trigger chronic offending (Silverthorn & Frick, 1999). In addition to the recognition that the

onset patterns may vary across sex, it is theoretically argued that the causes of onset and

persistence also vary across sex. Building on Daly’s (1992) pioneering work, much research