The nuclear power industry is at a standstill.

• Author: Flavin, Christopher

Most construction programs are coming to a close, as rising costs and concern over safety spell the end of the nuclear age.

THE NUCLEAR power industry is being squeezed out of the global energy marketplace, according to a survey by the Worldwatch Institute in collaboration with World Information Service on Energy in Paris and Greenpeace International in Amsterdam.

Between 1991 and 1992, total installed nuclear generating capacity declined for the first time since the 1950s, when the industry began. There were 421 nuclear plants in commercial operation worldwide in January, 1992, 10 fewer than at the peak in January, 1989. These nuclear plants were providing less than 17% of the world's electricity.

While nuclear proponents have tried to use concern about global warming as a pretext for reviving the industry, there has been no response from the private sector thus far. Nuclear energy would be an exceedingly expensive way to displace coal-fired power. To offset even five percent of current global carbon emissions would require that nuclear energy be nearly doubled from today's level--at a cost exceeding one trillion dollars. This seems inconceivable, given the current state of public opinion and economics.

There were 49 nuclear plants under active construction at the beginning of 1992, one-quarter as many as a decade ago. Most are nearing completion so that, by the year 2000, the world will have, at most, 360,000 megawatts of nuclear capacity--only 10% above the current figure of 325,942 megawatts. This is less than one-tenth the forecast made by the international Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) at the time of the first oil price hike in 1974.

Unless there is an immediate turnaround in orders, nuclear power may be declining by 2000. Nearly one in six plants that have been built already are closed. Some 76 reactors, with a total generating capacity of 17,150 megawatts, have been retired, after an average service life of less than 17 years. Dozens more could be decommissioned in the next few years, nearly canceling out reactors coming on line.

These new figures contradict the rosy assessments put out each year by the IAEA in Vienna. Its statistics released in April, 1992, include serious inaccuracies, such as overstating the number of reactors under construction by 27. Included on the IAEA's construction list are two plants in Iran that were bombed during the Iran-Iraq war and have not been worked on since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Work also...