Nuclear Modernization Programs Moving Forward.

• Author: Harper, Jon
• Position: Budget Matters

The Air Force is moving forward with plans to develop new ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles and air-launched cruise missiles. But there are doubts about whether the programs will be fully funded in the coming decades.

In August, Boeing and Northrop Grumman were awarded $349 million and $329 million contracts respectively to conduct technology maturation and risk reduction work for the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, known as GBSD, which is expected to replace legacy ICBMs. The goal is to "deliver a low technical risk, affordable total system replacement of Minuteman III," the Defense Department said in a news release.

The Air Force also awarded Lockheed Martin and Raytheon $900 million each for the technology maturation and risk reduction phase of the Long Range Stand-Off weapon, known as LRSO, which is intended to replace aging AGM-86B air-launched cruise missiles.

But some analysts question whether enough money will be available to fully fund the GBSD and LRSO programs down the road. The Pentagon is also pursuing next-generation stealth bombers and ballistic missile submarines, which could compete for procurement dollars.

"All three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad are currently slated for modernization in the next 10 to 20 years," Amy Wolf, a nuclear weapons policy specialist, said in a recent Congressional Research Service report titled, "U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Development and Issues."

"Each of these programs is likely to stress the budgets and financial capabilities of the services," she added.

Pentagon cost estimates for the GBSD program have ranged from $62 billion to $85 billion. The LRSO program has been estimated to cost $10.8 billion, Wolf said.

Defense Department officials have said that current nuclear modernization plans could come with a $350 billion to $450 billion price tag over the next 20 years, and some think tank analysts have projected even higher costs. At the same time, the Pentagon will also be trying to fund big-ticket conventional weapon systems such as the F-35 joint strike fighter.

"While the Air Force appears committed to pursuing the development of a new ground-based strategic deterrent, there is growing recognition among analysts that fiscal constraints may alter this approach," Wolf said.

The ongoing Nuclear Posture Review is likely to strongly reaffirm the...