Nuclear Missile Replacement Program at a Crossroads.

• Author: Harper, Jon

* The Air Force has been touting the need to replace the nation's intercontinental ballistic missiles, one of the three legs of the nuclear arsenal. But a recent decision by Boeing not to compete for the next phase of the replacement program raises questions about the future of the initiative.

The Minuteman Ills are aging, and Pentagon leaders aim to start deploying a next-generation system, the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, in 2028. The GBSD program is one of its top nuclear modernization initiatives, with an estimated value of $85 billion or more.

In July, the Air Force released a request for proposals for the engineering and manufacturing development phase that includes five production lot options to produce and deploy the weapon system. Boeing and Northrop Grumman--the two contractors working on the technology maturation and risk reduction phase--were expected to compete for the EMD contract, with an award expected in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020.

"The GBSD program office members have worked hard to analyze the costs of every requirement, used modeling and simulation to evaluate every decision and keep the design, development and deployment of the weapon system on track," program manager Col. Jason Bartolomei said in a press release.

However, soon after the RFP was issued, Boeing announced that it did not intend to bid, saying it did not believe it would be competing on a level playing field with Northrop Grumman.

The Air Force declined to provide on-the-record comment about Boeing's decision.

"While the Air Force remains in source selection, we will not provide any comments to preserve the integrity of the competitive process," said Capt. Cara Bousie, a spokeswoman for Air Force acquisition chief Will Roper.

The service now has four options for the EMD phase, said Peter Huessy, director of strategic deterrent studies at the Mitchell Institute: go with Northrop Grumman; create a joint Boeing-Northrop Grumman team; recompete the contract and seek to include other companies as well; or rework the RFP to address Boeing's objections and ensure both Boeing and Northrop Grumman bid on the contract.

Another potential option floated by some observers is conducting another Minuteman III life extension.

"The Air Force has yet to demonstrate that sustaining the Minuteman III, in my view, beyond the missiles' expected retirement in the 2020-2030 timeframe is not a viable or more cost-effective near-term option," Kingston Reif...