Nineteenth Annual Conference on Macroeconomics.

• Position: Conferences

The NBER's Nineteenth Annual Conference on Macroeconomics took place in Cambridge on April 2 and 3. Mark Gertler, NBER and New York University, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, NBER and Harvard University, organized this program:

Graziella Kaminsky, NBER and George Washington University; Carmen M. Reinhart, International Monetary Fund; and Carlos A, Vegh, NBER and University of California, Los Angeles, "When It Rains It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies"

Discussants: Gita Gopinath, University of Chicago, and Roberto Rigobon, NBER and MIT

Eric M. Engen, American Enterprise Institute, and R. Glenn Hubbard, NBER and Columbia University, "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates"

Discussants: Jonathan Parker, NBER and Princeton University, and Matthew D. Shapiro, NBER and University of Michigan

Domenico Giannone and Lucrezia Reichlin, Free University of Brussels, and Luca Sala, Bocconi University, "Monetary Policy in Real Time"

Discussants: Mark W. Watson, NBER and Princeton University, and Harald Uhlig, Humboldt University

Jordi Gali, NBER and CREI, and Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund, "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?"

Discussants: Ellen McGrattan, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, and Valerie A. Ramey, NBER and University of California, San Diego

David K. Back-us, NBER and New York University; Bryan R. Routledge, Carnegie Mellon University; and Stanley E. Zin, NBER and Carnegie Mellon University, "Exotic Preferences for Macroeconomists"

Discussants: Lars P. Hansen, NBER and University of Chicago, and Ivan Werning, NBER and MIT

Paul Gomme, University of Iowa; Richard Rogerson, NBER and Arizona State University; Peter Rupert, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; and Randall Wright, NBER and University of Pennsylvania, "The Business Cycle and the Life Cycle"

Discussants: Eva Nagypal, Northwestern University, and Robert Shimer, NBER and University, of Chicago

Based on a sample of 105 countries, Kaminsky, Reinhart, and Vegh document some key cyclical properties of capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. First, capital flows are procyclical (that is, external borrowing increases in good times and falls in bad times) for developing countries and, most notably, for middle-high income countries (emerging markets). Second, fiscal policy is procyclical (that is, government spending increases in good times and falls in bad times) for all developing...