A New Wave of Mass Shootings? Exploring the Potential Impact of COVID-19

• Author: Jaclyn Schildkraut,Jillian J. Turanovic
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221101605
• Published date: 01 November 2022
• Date: 01 November 2022
• Subject Matter: Special Issue Articles

https://doi.org/10.1177/10887679221101605

Homicide Studies

2022, Vol. 26(4) 362 –378

© 2022 SAGE Publications

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DOI: 10.1177/10887679221101605

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Special Issue Article

A New Wave of Mass

Shootings? Exploring the

Potential Impact of COVID-19

Jaclyn Schildkraut1 and Jillian J. Turanovic2

Abstract

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has brought much of U.S. society to a grinding

halt, its impact on the occurrence of mass shootings is largely unknown. Using data

from the Gun Violence Archive and an interrupted time-series design, we analyzed

weekly counts of mass shootings in the U.S. from 2019 through 2021. Results show

that total, private, and public mass shootings increased following the declaration of

COVID-19 as a national emergency in March of 2020. We consider these findings in

the context of their broader implications for prevention efforts as well as how they

pave the way for future research.

Keywords

COVID-19, mass shootings, public, private

Mass shootings have and continue to be a cause for concern among the U.S. popula-

tion. Events like Columbine (1999), Pulse (2016), Las Vegas (2017), Parkland (2018),

and El Paso (2019) have given way to perceptions that public locations including

schools, workplaces, nightlife venues, and even Wal-Mart are not immune to acts of

violence. This is due, in no small part, to the disproportional amount of news coverage

that these highly lethal events generate (Fox et al., 2021; Schildkraut et al., 2018). The

coverage of mass shootings also overshadows media attention given to less lethal

incidents of gun violence and violent crime in general. Homicides broadly, while on

the rise (see Howard, 2021), account for less than 1% all offenses known to law

enforcement, and mass shootings represent less than 1% of homicides.1 Although pub-

lic mass shootings are those that typically garner the most attention, mass shootings do

1State University of New York at Oswego, USA

2Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA

Corresponding Author:

Jaclyn Schildkraut, State University of New York at Oswego, 458 Mahar Hall, Oswego, NY 13126, USA.

Email: Jaclyn.Schildkraut@oswego.edu

1101605HSXXXX10.1177/10887679221101605Homicide StudiesSchildkraut and Turanovic

research-article2022

Schildkraut and Turanovic 363

not only occur in such public spaces. Neighborhoods and even private residences have

experienced such tragedies (Barton et al., 2020), yet these mass shootings rarely make

national headlines.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which was declared a national emergency on March 13,

2020 (Proclamation No. 9994, 2020), brought much of U.S. society to a grinding halt.

This shift appeared to include the occurrence of public mass shootings. In the month

following the declaration, for example, news outlets reported that it was the first

March in nearly two decades without a school shooting (e.g., Lewis, 2020), largely

because schools were shut down and learning had transitioned to an online format.

Similarly, the Associated Press reported that the number of public mass shootings for

the year was the lowest it had been in more than a decade (Pane, 2020). Such findings

are not entirely surprising, particularly when considered from a routine activity per-

spective (Felson & Eckert, 2019, Schildkraut et al., 2019, 2022; Stickle & Felson,

2020)—the pandemic effectively reduced the opportunity for motivated offenders

(mass shooters) to converge with suitable targets (victims) in settings absent capable

guardians (public spaces).

Notably, however, USA Today reported that mass shootings more broadly reached

a record high that same year, increasing 20% over years prior (della Cava & Stucka,

2021), and other news outlets followed suit. Such claims were drawn from data from

the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), which collects incidents where four or more people

are shot, regardless of location or circumstance. Using these broad parameters, the

GVA (n.d.c.) recorded an average of approximately 385 shootings per year between

2014 and 2020, despite that, using stricter definitions, other researchers (e.g., Fox &

DeLateur, 2014; Schildkraut, 2021) have found that approximately 20 public mass

shootings occur on average annually. This raises an important question as to what

impact the pandemic has had on the occurrence of mass shootings. Put another way,

did the occurrence of public mass shootings really dissipate or did these events simply

relocate to more private spaces, particularly in light of reported increases in the num-

ber of events more broadly?

When considering the occurrence of mass murders more broadly, research has iden-

tified two distinct waves (Duwe, 2004). The first wave, occurring in the 1920s and

1930s, mainly included acts of familicide that were the result of an agricultural depres-

sion (leading farmers who could no longer provide for their families to kill them) and

rising divorce rates. The second wave, conversely, is characterized by more public

mass shootings and has occurred on a considerably larger scale than the first wave.

This wave began in the 1960s with the tower shooting at the University of Texas

(1966) and continues with similar acts through present day. Given the potential strains

experienced by individuals and families because of the pandemic, including rising

unemployment rates (Falk et al., 2021) and other increasing financial pressures (e.g.,

Farmer, 2020; Horowitz et al., 2021), it begs the question as to whether COVID is

shifting the U.S. back toward the first wave of mass murder (characterized by rising

rates of familicide) or if it even possibly is creating a third, new wave of these events.

Preliminary research (Peña & Jena, 2021) has found that the number of mass

shootings increased in the post-pandemic period. Using GVA data, the authors plotted