Neil Newhouse and Geoffrey Garin.

• Author: Wolf, Mark
• Position: FOR THE RECORD - Interview

Neil Newhouse and Geoffrey Garin are two of the Garin are two of the nation's preeminent political pollsters. Newhouse, a Republican, is a partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies. Garin, a Democrat, is the president of Hart Research Associates. They were keynote speakers at the 2014 Legislative Summit and were interviewed by NCSL's Mark Wolf.

STATE LEGISLATURES: How does what happens on the federal level affect elections in the states?

Neil Newhouse (R): Everything goes downhill. When you have a political environment that's structured to be responsive to what's going on at the federal level, it has a tremendous impact on local elections. For instance, if there's a Republican tilt in the federal races, that goes all the way down to state legislative, local and city council races across the country. It impacts turnout, it impacts voter enthusiasm. So it has tremendous impact on those close legislative races across the country.

Geoffrey Garin (D): And frankly, Democrats at the national level are more likely to invest in getting Democratic voters out to the polls where there are competitive races. And in states where there are no contested federal elections or Democrats aren't competitive, at the state legislative level, Democrats are concerned that nobody is doing the hard work or putting in the resources necessary to successfully get voters to turn out.

STATE LEGISLATURES: How much of a burden is President Obama's low approval ratings on Democrats? And how much should congressional Republicans be concerned about the public's low regard for Congress?

GARIN: That's the sixty-four thousand dollar question of this election. There are probably some laws of gravity that will ultimately apply in terms of President Obama's approval rating. But this is a different kind of election cycle than the one we had in 2010 when it was all about President Obama and the Democrats. People took their frustrations out on them virtually 100 percent. But since the 2010 election, the Republican Party brand has really degraded considerably--people are unhappy with the way the Republican majority in the House has conducted itself--its contribution to gridlock and its affiliation with Tea Party Republicanism. To what extent will that leaven the Obama impact? I think it will some. I also think these races will be contested campaign by campaign. They're more about the candidates and less about whether you like John Boehner or President Obama. But, as I said...