Navy ship numbers for Asia-Pacific shift don't add up.

• Author: Magnuson, Stew
• Position: Homeland Security News

U.S. Pacific Command's area of operation consists of 36 nations located in 105 million square miles, of which 83 percent is water.

The Defense Department's strategic shift to the Asia-Pacific region announced in 2012 has gone hand in hand with a budget crunch, which in turn may test the Navy's ability to maintain a sufficient number of ships to carry out a global mission, analysts said.

PACOM Commander Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III said at an Atlantic Council presentation recently that it's the U.S. military's goal to have a robust and capable forward presence in the region.

"We send only our very best cruisers and destroyers with high-end capabilities," to the area, he said.

The types and numbers of U.S. Navy vessels required to patrol and respond to calls for action in the Asia-Pacific is still a matter of debate, experts interviewed said. According to PACOM figures, there are already some 180 ships and submarines in the region, which includes five aircraft carrier groups.

"The great distances and broad range of requirements combine to put a demand on the fleet that is very difficult to meet at the level we are currently at," said Joe Carnevale, senior defense advisor at the Shipbuilders Council of America and a retired Navy rear admiral.

The great expanses that must be covered means the more ships the better, and all classifications are needed, he said.

"I think the Asia-Pacific region is a perfect example of why you need a balanced Navy.... You need more of everything," he said.

Bernard D. Cole, a retired Navy captain and now a professor at the National War College, said, "From a naval perspective, the rebalancing is going to be pretty subtle."

Depending on how they are counted, the Navy has some 283 ships. It needs to get a few more than 300, but current shipbuilding plans don't quite get the Navy there.

"There are some real problems in the future with the shipbuilding budget," he said.

For example, the Navy wants to build 12 new submarines for its nuclear deterrent force. The costs of these expensive boats would eat up the surface ship budget, he said. Some have argued that as a strategic asset, subs should be in a separate budget, he said.

Carnevale said: "Frankly, I look at it and think 283 ships is just not enough."

That also brings up the question as to what kinds of ships are needed in the Asia-Pacific.

Every kind, Carnevale said.

Amphibious ships for humanitarian relief and forward presence, submarines for their intelligence...