N.C. house buyers have little room to complain.

PositionECONOMIC OUTLOOK - Interview

It might seem hard to believe as you're glancing through the real-estate listings, but houses in much of the state are priced about right, says a national study by Global Insight Inc., a Waltham, Mass.-based economic forecaster, and National City Corp., a Cleveland-based bank. Median prices in Greensboro and Raleigh in the first quarter were about where they should have been, while houses in Charlotte were relatively cheap. Those in Wilmington and Asheville were the most overvalued. Dave Iaia is a senior principal at Global Insight.

BNC: What does it mean for a market to be overvalued?

Iaia: We calculate what we think the median price in that metro area should be, based on income levels and housing prices historically, and we compare that to where housing prices are right now. A metro area is overvalued when the actual median is higher than the median price that income levels in that area can support.

Who uses this study?

The home market is an area that a lot of people are interested in--economists, Realtors, bankers, other business people, homeowners. So much of people's wealth is tied up in their homes. If the housing market fell apart, that would potentially mean bad things for the local economy.

Why is Wilmington so overvalued?

Wage growth has been fairly weak in Wilmington compared to other places in North Carolina. Also, in places that have a second-home market, you have outside demand driving up prices.

So the income of the nonresidents--second-home buyers--isn't factored in.

The fact that we don't have those income levels is a minus in our calculation.

Is it possible homes in Wilmington and Asheville aren't really overvalued?

No. Those were really large overvaluations. There wouldn't be enough outside demand to account for them.

Is now a good time to sell a house in Wilmington or Asheville?

We try to stay away from personal advice.

But you'd get a good price, given what the house is probably worth.

I wouldn't frame it that way. When a market is overvalued, we would say that the conditions are favorable for price growth to slow down.

So to get the best price, you would sell now before prices start leveling off or going down?

Yeah. These markets have a greater risk of having price declines or flattening out than places that are undervalued or appropriately valued.

If you're an investor, it's probably not a good idea to buy a house in Wilmington or Asheville?

Yeah. I guess if you're strictly an investor. Obviously, it varies from house...

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