Muncie Forecast 2014.

• Author: Morris, Phillip E.

The official numbers show small improvements in the Muncie area economy during 2013. The unemployment rate is down. Nonfarm employment increased as did average weekly wages. The housing market, particularly real estate sales, continues to improve, and local real estate agents indicate that there are shortages in some segments of the market. However, the job gains of the past year are not likely to persist. In September, IU Health Ball Memorial Hospital, Delaware County's largest employer, announced that 120 people would be laid off by the end of 2013. Local software maker Ontario Systems recently announced a layoff of 20 workers. These job losses will hamper an already fragile recovery. Earlier this year, Magna Powertrain announced that it is adding up to 76 jobs over the next few years, and recently Progress Rail announced the hiring additional workers on short-term contracts, but net gains in employment in the county are likely to be small.

This article includes the most current data available on various measures of economic activity from public sources for the Muncie metropolitan area (Delaware County) to analyze changes over the past year. A summary of the labor market forecast for the Muncie area is included in the conclusion.

Labor Markets

The unemployment rate for August 2013 made a substantial improvement from January 2013, decreasing from 10.4 percent to 8.6 percent. This is also lower than one year ago (August 2012) when the unemployment rate was 9.7 percent (see Table 1). However, Delaware County's unemployment rate is still higher than Indiana's rate of 7.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted) in August 2013. Similar to the situation in 2012, the number of unemployed workers decreased at a faster rate (down 20.7 percent) than the change in the labor force (down 4 percent) in 2013. The decrease in unemployment rate is due in part to a smaller labor force as around 2,000 people left the labor force in Delaware County. The change in the number of unemployed workers is similar to the state of Indiana which saw a 21.3 percent reduction. However, Indiana's labor force went in the opposite direction with a 1 percent increase.

Table 1: Labor Force and Unemployment, Delaware County, August 2012 to August 2013 Year Month Labor Force Unemployed Unemployment Rate August 54,430 5,286 9.7 September 55,397 4,970 9.0 2012 October 55,440 4,817 8.7 November 55,209 4,852 8.8 December 55,118 5,133 9.3 Annual 54,245 5,161 9.5 January 54,901 5,712 10.4...