Mostly Sunny forecast: The Ohio Society's State of Ohio'Business Poll.

AuthorEufinger, Tony

As millions of Ohioans flocked to the polls Nov. 4 to pick mayors, judges and council members across the state, The Ohio Society of CPAs kicked off an election of its own. The first-ever State of Ohio Business Poll surveyed hundreds of CPA business leaders to assess the current state of Ohio's economy, and to catch a glimpse of what might lie ahead for businesses and employees in 2004. The results reveal both positive signs that point to an economic recovery, and potential warnings about the future of doing business in Ohio.

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As The Columbus Dispatch appropriately notes, the State of Ohio Business Poll participants "aren't your average survey respondents."

Quite the contrary, The Ohio Society deliberately selected participants from its membership who hold senior financial positions inside Ohio businesses as well as senior CPAs inside the firms and sole practitioners. The poll also asked partners in accounting firms, sole practitioners and industry officers to predict the economic course in 2004 based on their unique per spectives. After all, who better to assess Ohio's economic health than the CPAs who help develop financial insights every day and evaluate alternatives for the business community?

Using an independent, outside polling firm, Opinion Strategies Inc., the electronic survey drew responses from 733 Ohio CPAs between Nov. 4 and 11. The high response rate rivaled some national polls, causing Opinion Strategies President Thomas Sawyer to give the poll a high confidence rating and a relatively small margin of error--just 2 to 3 percent.

And the Survey Says ...

The State of Ohio Business Poll attracted widespread interest outside the CPA profession. Dozens of major media organizations, state legislators and Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell joined Society members who turned out for the Nov. 18 press conference at the Atrium of the Ohio Statehouse to hear the results.

So what is the Ohio CPA business community's economic forecast for Ohio in 2004? Expect partly sunny skies with a few scattered clouds on the horizon.

Sixty-four percent of Ohio's CPA business leaders predict Ohio's economy will get brighter in 2004. Increased capital investments and a stabilizing job market will drive the expansion, according to the results of some of the more detailed questions. Less than 7 percent forecast a downturn in the state's economic condition next year.

More than half of the CPAs (51 percent) expect increased capital investments in Ohio, while 41 percent anticipate capital investment will remain consistent with 2003 levels. Forty-two percent foresee expansion in Ohio's job market. Forty-four percent believe there will be little change, but only 13 percent expect fewer jobs available to Ohioans in 2004.

Respondents also identify the health care sector as the number one growth industry for the new year. They named construction (both commercial and residential), technology and service industries as other potential growth areas.

During the news conference Clarke Price, president and CEO of The Ohio Society, interpreted the overall results to be good news for Ohio. Price continually put the results in context by emphasizing the unique insights Ohio's CPAs possess.

"CPAs work closely with Ohio's top businesses and possess unique insights into business plans for the coming year. Our members believe those businesses are beginning to reinvest in Ohio."

Stormy Weather?

However, some of the State of Ohio Business Poll findings show potential obstacles to improving Ohio's economy in 2004.

The survey found that only 20...

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