A moderating influence.

• Author: Mooneyham, Scott
• Position: CAPITALGOODS

Every four years, North Carolina Republicans talk about ending the Democrats' stranglehold on political power in the state. And every four years, Democrats usually beat them back. The Democrats' success, at least since the 1970s, has come in part by their embracing the role of pro-business moderates. Doing so, Democrats running for governor and other statewide offices have been able to harvest the state's most fertile source of campaign money--wealthy business executives and business-related political-action committees--leaving the Republican candidates digging for scraps.

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Will 2008 be any different? Gary Pearce doesn't think so. He might be a little biased. He's a Democratic political consultant whose clients included former Gov. Jim Hunt and then-U.S. Senate candidate John Edwards. Pearce calls it "cracking the code," and he doesn't see even hairline fractures right now. "I think the Democrats' hold is getting stronger and stronger."

His reasoning might surprise you. Pearce believes the influx of highly educated, moderate Republican voters is helping moderate Democratic candidates, not hurting them. Transplants moving to Charlotte, the Triad and Triangle to work in banking, communications and high-tech industries care about pocketbook issues and public education. In addition to wrapping themselves in the pro-business blanket, Democrats running for statewide office have made these issues their own. At the same time, the Republicans' anti-tax, anti-regulation message--successful in presidential and congressional races--hasn't had the same resonance on the state level.

Of course, Pearce is painting with some broad strokes. The details are a bit more complicated. For one thing, Democratic success hasn't been complete. Republicans Jim Holshouser and Jim Martin won terms as governor (two for Martin) in the 1970s and 1980s. The GOP also gained a majority in the state House for four years beginning in 1994. Today, Republicans hold three of the 10 elected executive-branch offices--agriculture secretary, labor secretary and state auditor. Also, more often than not, campaign money from business interests flows to those in power. If business is good, why wouldn't it? Big business, in particular, craves stability and frets about the unknown. It becomes a supporter of the status quo. In North Carolina, status quo means Democrat.

Still, Republicans cracked the code elsewhere in the South, taking up residence in governors mansions...