Modeling Urban Atmospheric Anthrax Spores Dispersion: Assessment of Health Impacts and Policy Implications

• Author: Zafer Boybeyi,Arnauld Nicogossian,Laurie A. Schintler
• Published date: 01 September 2011
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.2202/1948-4682.1188
• Date: 01 September 2011

Volume 3, Issue 3 • 2011 • Article 5

Modeling Urban Atmospheric Anthrax Spores Dispersion:

Assessment of Health Impacts and Policy Implications

Arnauld Nicogossian, George Mason University

Laurie A. Schintler, George Mason University

Zafer Boybeyi, George Mason University

Nicogossian, Arnauld; Schintler, Laurie A.; and Boybeyi, Zafer (2011) "Modeling Urban

Atmospheric Anthrax Spores Dispersion: Assessment of Health Impacts and Policy Implications,"

World Medical & Health Policy: Vol. 3: Iss. 3, Article 5.

Available at: http://www.psocommons.org/wmhp/vol3/iss3/art5

DOI: 10.2202/1948-4682.1188

©2011 Policy Studies Organization

Modeling Urban Atmospheric Anthrax

Spores Dispersion: Assessment of Health

Impacts and Policy Implications

Arnauld Nicogossian, George Mason University

Laurie A. Schintler, George Mason University

Zafer Boybeyi, George Mason University

Abstract

Purpose

To model atmospheric dispersion of weapon grade anthrax spores over an urban region using

a mass transit system (subway) as a delivery system.

Introduction

The accessibility and carrying capacity of mass transit system (s) makes it an attractive target

for terrorists. There are multiple, historical accounts of terrorists attacks involving transit systems.

Metropolitan underground transportation rail systems (subways) are of special interest because of a

potential harm to a large number of commuters and damage to the transportation infrastructure.

Methods

We assumed that multiple release points of anthrax spores within the National Capital Region

(NCR-Washington, District of Columbia) METRO rail system will result in the escape of the spores

into the atmosphere. Potential factors affecting atmospheric dispersion of spores and the regional

infrastructure were the subject of literature searches, modeling exercises and expert reviews. A

Geographic Information System (GIS) and the Operational Multiscale Environment Model with

Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) were used to model the affected area.

Results

The GIS together with the OMEGA software programs characterized the extent of the ground

footprint and provided the number of the NCR residential, businesses and health care infrastructure

under the plume at 120 minutes after the release. It was concluded that the maximum environmental

and health impacts would occur if the spores were released in the early morning during the summer

months (low humidity and ultra-violet radiation). This assumption was based on the analysis of the

weather patterns and prevailing winds in the NCR.

Conclusions

The atmospheric dispersion model superimposed over the regional GIS suggests that the

extent of the affected infrastructure will be negligible. However it has the potential to disrupt the