Missoula County: slowly clawing upward.

• Author: Polzin, Paul E.
• Position: Statistical data

Economic growth in Missoula's economy has been frustratingly slow. After three straight years of decline during the Great Recession, the Missoula economy turned upward in 2011. But the growth rates have been have been anemic. The Missoula economy expanded about 1.5 percent per year in 2012 and 2013, as compared to 3 percent to 4 percent annual growth before the recession.

There are three main reasons for the slow growth:

1. The construction industry has not rebounded. Although Missoula did not experience the construction boom and bust seen elsewhere, building activity has barely budged front recession lows. The very preliminary data suggest a slight uptick during the first half of 2014.

2. The wood and paper products industry is much smaller. As recently as 2006, the wood and paper products industry accounted for about 13 percent of Missoula's economic base. It now represents roughly 5 percent. The wood products industry has rebounded as the U. S. economy resumed growth, but it is still just a shell of its former self.

3. Missoula's changing role as a trade center. Competition from places like Hamilton and Kalispell means that residents may be less likely to drive to Missoula and shop. Missoula continues to attract professional and business service firms that serve the region.

The Missoula Economic Partnership reported that it created about 750 new jobs during the last three years in basic industries such as computer-based technologies, manufacturing, and health services. Recent economic trends may have been even less favorable without these jobs.

The forecasts call for 2.4 percent to 2.7 percent growth from 2015 to 2018. This is a significant improvement from the past performance. There are retail additions on Missoula's south side, which should improve the city's role as a trade center. Continued growth as a regional center for professional services and further manufacturing jobs are likely to materialize. The most important...