Missoula County: better growth ahead.

• Author: Barkey, Patrick M.
• Position: Statistical data

To refer to Missoula's economic performance over the past five years as death by a thousand cuts would not be exactly correct. Montana's second largest economy, home to one of the two flagship state universities as well as the state's second largest health care delivery market, is still very much alive. Growing, in fact. Yet the gradual, incremental nature of its slow decline and now its sluggish recovery is consistent with this image of a major negative change that comes about in small increments.

On the recession side of the ledger, the fact that change was gradual was welcome. As housing bust areas such as Flathead and Ravalli counties suffered steep declines, the stabilizing influence of Missoula's university and government base helped produce a less painful contraction. Moderation on the upside has been less desirable. With growth in the state as a whole swinging up more strongly, Missoula's expansion is stuck in a lower gear.

But only a year ago growth itself was hard to find, particularly income growth. 2013 was a better year for Missoula's banks, transportation companies, and to a lesser extent, tourism spending. Health care grew strongly and, despite the headlines, the university was mostly stable. Construction was the big disappointment, with no sign yet that home building is taking off. Missoula's remaining wood product and related manufacturers are benefitting from the pickup in national home building, however, starting 2013 with much better sales.

Missoula is poised for a better growth year in 2014. Its housing prices have rebounded, setting the stage for a ramp-up in building multi- and single-family homes. Retail and other commercial construction projects, some delayed during the recession, are coming to fruition. And its trucking, rail, and remaining wood products businesses...