Missile Defenses "Are in Our Future," Says U.S. Arms Control Official.

• Author: Kennedy, Harold
• Position: John D. Holum, the State Department's senior advisor - Brief Article

Russia and China need to come to terms with the likelihood that the United States eventually will build a missile defense system of some sort, John D. Holum, the State Department's senior advisor for arms control and international security, told a recent gathering of defense writers.

Holum made his remarks shortly after returning from talks with the Chinese government on bilateral arms control, nonproliferation and security issues.

Both Russia and China oppose U.S. efforts to build a missile defense system, saying they fear that it would force them into a new arms race to keep up. But the two countries' opposition won't prevent the United States from going ahead, Holum predicted.

"It's pretty clear that missile defenses are in our future," Holum said. "Russia's and China's strategy is not to come to terms with that, but to try to talk us out of it."

That "may work for a while," he conceded. But ultimately, he said, it's in the interests of both countries to accept the concept. "We need to convince the Russians and Chinese that a missile defense system wouldn't be aimed at them."

The real targets of these defense systems, Holum emphasized, are the "rogue states" such as North Korea, Iran and Iraq, or, as the State Department now prefers to call them, "states of concern."

Potential Threats

By 2005, according to the Central Intelligence Agency, some of these nations are likely to have intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Already, North Korea has conducted successful tests of its Taepo Dong long-range missile and is developing a second generation capable of reaching the United States. In July, Iran tested its medium-range Shahab-3. Iranian officials already are talking about a Shahab-4, Holum said.

To defend against these potential threats, the United States is developing two programs--a National Missile Defense (NMD) system, meant to defend all 50 states from attack, and various Theater Missile Defense (TMD) systems, intended to protect U.S. forces and allies in specific regions of the world.

The administration had hoped to have the NMD ready for deployment by 2003. The NMD, however, has been troubled by technical glitches. Two of the three tests of the system in the past year have failed, and deployment has been delayed until 2005.

Faced with such failures and with international opposition to the systems--especially from Russia and China--President Clinton has nor decided whether to deploy the NMD system, according to Defense...