Minority Turnout and the Creation of Majority-Minority Districts

• Author: Lisa Handley,Richard G. Niemi,Kimball Brace,Harold W. Stanley
• Published date: 01 April 1995
• Date: 01 April 1995
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9502300204
• Subject Matter: Articles

MINORITY
TURNOUT
AND
THE
CREATION
OF
MAJORITY-MINORITY
DISTRICTS
KIMBALL
BRACE
LISA HANDLEY
Election Data Services
RICHARD G. NIEMI
HAROLD
W. STANLEY
University of Rochester
In the construction of majority-minority districts, it has typically been assumed that turnout of
minority voters is low compared to that of Whites. But what happens in the minority-dominated
districts that are created? With a considerably enhanced ability to elect a candidate of their own
choosing, does turnout increase? We test whether the creation of majority-minority legislative
districts in Florida increased turnout of Black and Hispanic voters in 1992. The results are mixed.
Over-time comparisons suggest that turnout of both groups might have benefitted from the
creation of majority-minority districts. Cross-sectional analyses, however, suggest both in-
creases and decreases in turnout in the newly created minority districts. We
cannot yet conclude
that the creation of minority-dominated districts has a consistent effect on minority turnout.
In the past, studies of minority participation focused largely on the
impact of socioeconomic factors and on overall participation levels
relative to those of Whites. Recently, researchers have begun to
consider other questions, especially whether minority &dquo;empower-
ment&dquo; increases the magnitude and nature of participation. Bobo and
Gilliam (1990), for example, found that Black participation of all sorts
was enhanced when Blacks controlled the mayor’s office. Similarly,
Lublin and Tate (1992) found that voter turnout in mayoral elections
was generally higher when there were Black candidates (though they
were unable to measure Black and White turnout separately), and
Vanderleeuw and Utter (1993) found slightly less roll-off from may-
oral to city council voting in New Orleans districts with Black candi-
dates. On
the other hand, Gaddie and Bullock (1994) found no increase
AMERICAN
POLITICS QUARTERLY, Vol 23 No 2, Apnl 1995 190-203
@ 1995 Sage Publications, Inc
190

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191
in Black turnout associated with the creation of Black-majority dis-
tricts in Louisiana.
The question of whether minority participation is related to minor-
ity candidacy and officeholding is important, among other reasons,
because of developments in legislative districting. First, as a descrip-
tive matter, did the creation of more majority-minority districts after
the 1990 Census lead to greater minority participation? The impor-
tance of such a finding might go well beyond the evening out of White
and minority voting rates, inasmuch as increased participation might
coincide with, and possibly help create, changes in minorities’ per-
spectives on government and politics (Bobo and Gilliam 1990, 387).
Second, from the perspective of districting practices, increased
minority participation in districts not dominated by racial or ethnic
majorities would suggest that the practice of compensating for minor-
ity underparticipation by creating supermajorities is unnecessary
(Brace et al. 1988). Indeed, if minority participation rates in such
districts were to equal or exceed those of Whites, the routine use of
supermajorities would seemingly constitute &dquo;packing,&dquo; in that minori-
ties unnecessarily crowded into majority-minority districts could just
as well be included in neighboring White districts.’
I
In this article we present initial findings regarding the effects on
voter turnout of the creation of majority-minority districts at the
congressional and state legislative levels. Data management and in-
ferential problems are formidable. Therefore, we limit our analysis to
the state of Florida. Fortunately, Florida is sufficiently diverse that we
will be able to consider turnout among both Blacks and Hispanics.2
Our database will allow us to employ both over-time and cross-
sectional approaches.
Our results are mixed. Over-time comparisons suggest that turnout
may indeed be affected by the kind of district in which minority voters
find themselves. Cross-sectional analyses, however, suggest both
increases and decreases in turnout in the newly created minority
districts. Overall, we cannot yet conclude that the creation of minor-
ity-dominated districts has a consistent effect on minority turnout.
From the perspective of districting practices, the use of supermajori-
ties in majority-minority districts does not necessarily result in pack-
ing, as would be the case if minority turnout always increased substan-
tially in those districts.

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192
TURNOUT
IN
MAJORITY-MINORITY
DISTRICTS
We
base our analysis on precinct data, classifying precincts by their
racial/ethnic composition. We use two approaches. First, we make
over-time comparisons using so-called homogeneous precincts-that
is, precincts that are predominantly of one racial/ethnic group.
Our interest will center on possible changes in turnout in precincts
that were in majority-White districts but later found themselves in
majority-Black or majority-Hispanic districts. Second, we will make
cross-sectional comparisons of turnout in a single year. Here we will
make use of both homogeneous precinct analysis (based on a much
larger number of precincts) and on ecological regression analysis. Our
interest will be on relative turnout in 1992 of precincts falling into
majority-White or majority-minority districts.
OVER-TIME
ANALYSIS
Conceptually, an over-time analysis is straightforward. We wish to
consider turnout among minority-group members who live in newly
created majority-minority districts, comparing their turnout before
and after the creation of the new districts; as a baseline, we would use
turnout among minority-group members who lived continuously in
the same type (majority-minority or nonmajority-minority) of district.
In fact, such comparisons are difficult to come by. The primary reason
is that precincts are not stable entities. Many of them change from one
election to another, especially after a new...