Navy Mine Warfare Blueprint Proffers 'Innovator's Dilemma'.

• Author: Willingham, Stephen
• Position: Interview

The U.S. Navy's current efforts to develop and deploy anti-mine systems have all the ingredients of the classic "innovator's dilemma," said Rear Adm. Malcolm I. Fages, director of submarine warfare.

As is the case with many other programs in the Defense Department, the issue is whether the requirements are realistic and affordable. "What it comes down to," he said, "is a conflict between future vision and present bottom line. Unless somebody out there has seeds for a money tree, we aren't going to be able to afford an absolute solution to every problem that we face," Fages told the National Defense Industrial Association Expeditionary Warfare Conference, in Panama City, Fla.

"We are now just about where we were five years ago," he said.

The Navy is conducting an in-depth program review of anti-mine warfare programs. It is trying to decide, for example, how much money it should invest to fix its aging minesweeper vessels and how it can move forward with plans to deploy ad hoc mine detectors and neutralizers on carrier battle groups, so that the fighting forces can conduct anti-mine operations anywhere in the world.

Fages does nor believe the Navy is moving in the right direction when it comes to deploying new capabilities. "Programs seem to be more concerned with dates, and deliver only slight improvements in ability. Nobody is willing to take chances. Are we just getting comfortable with an investment strategy?" he asked rhetorically.

The Navy estimated that there are 49 countries that manufacture and deploy water-based mines. Mines are considered a typical "asymmetric" threat because a low-cost mine can put a billion-dollar ship out of service. In four incidents where U.S. ships were damaged by mines, the four mines collectively were worth $11,500. The damage they caused was worth $117 million.

The Navy wants to replace most dedicated systems with organic ones. Dedicated mine countermeasures (MCM) comprise the standing MCM force. It includes the 30-year-old USS Inchon, along with 14 Avenger-class mine countermeasures ships, for clearing mines from open sea-lanes, and 12 Osprey-class, coastal mine hunters. Dedicated airborne mine countermeasures (AMCM) are handled by two squadrons of MH-53E helicopters. Seventeen explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) units, consisting of 150 divers and support personnel, complete the anti-mine contingent stationed at the Ingleside Naval Station in Corpus Christi, Texas.

The mission for organic systems is to provide fast mine-clearing capability for deployed naval forces that would otherwise have to walt for the dedicated forces to arrive before mine clearance could be accomplished. However, large-volume clearance still would remain dependent on additional support.

"The Navy has decided to go organic when it comes to mine countermeasures," Fages stated, "if--and that's a big if--organic mine countermeasures can deliver more than incremental improvements over what we have today."

Fages openly expressed doubts about whether technological solutions could ever be available for every scenario related to "shallow water access assurance."

The Navy traditionally has relied on human divers and dolphins for mine detection in areas close to the shore, from 40 feet into the craft landing zone.

"What we have to be concerned with is how to move Marines and their equipment ashore, instead of getting bogged down with dictating technical solutions to problems that we may not ever have an answer to, or even be able to pay for if we do," said Fages.

Putting people in harm's way should be avoided, as much as possible, he said. Fages advocates the use of Undersea Unmanned Vehicles (UUV), equipped with near-term and long-term mine reconnaissance systems (NMRS and LMRS).

Even though UUVs can be launched and recovered from Los Angeles-class attack submarines, the problem, at the moment, is having batteries that can carry enough charge for long periods of time, he said. "Someday, we might have undersea service stations where UUVs could get recharged. ... UUVs also could be fitted with bomblers that could be directed to destroy any mines they find."

Future Threats

Mine warfare threats to U.S. military expeditionary operations and commercial shipping interests continue to increase, Fages said. "If enemy mine warfare prevents [forced] access in the littorals," commented Fages, "how are we going to explain that to the American people?"

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