Migration and development: the case of Turkish migration to Germany.

• Author: Sari, Ozlem L.
• Position: Essay

Abstract

This article reviews empirical research and studies to investigate the impact of international migration from Turkey to West Germany on economic development of Turkey. The paper is organized in three sections. The first section provides a theoretical background for the complex relationship between migration and development. The second section presents the size and nature of the international labor migration from Turkey to Western Europe and, specifically, to West Germany. The last section includes discussions of the potential effects of labor recruitment, remittances and return migration, and the extent that these potentials are realized. Overall impacts of the migration flow on development of Turkey are also presented.

INTRODUCTION

The main phase of labor migration from Turkey to Germany was initiated with bilateral labor recruitment agreements between two governments in the early 1960s. Given both countries' economic and social conditions, labor recruitment seemed a viable solution. Germany expected to receive a temporary labor supply and, therefore, get away with the high costs of incorporating migrant workers, while sustaining economic growth without the pressure of raising wages. Turkey, on the other hand, hoped for an impetus for economic development and modernization resulting from remittances and return of the migrant workers.

A decade later, in 1973, the German government abruptly halted labor recruitment. At the same time, it provided incentives to encourage return migration. Despite these incentives, volume of return migration remained low while Turkish population in Germany increased as a result of family reunion and high fertility rates. The number of Turks in Germany stabilized in the course of time, with more than two million Turks living in Germany today.

While the more visible economic and social effects on Germany have received increasing scholarly interest, effects of this migration on Turkey remains less studied. There have been studies, tracking return migrants and investigating impact of remittances and return migration on specific villages or towns. However, there has not been enough work evaluating macro scale economic and social consequences of this migration on Turkey. In fact, migration's effect on economic development of sending countries remains "unsettled" according to many scholars.

In the first section of this paper, I review theoretical approaches to the complex relationship between international migration and economic development. In the second, I discuss the conditions for the initiation and continuation of Turkish migration to West Germany. I review empirical research and studies that investigate the effects of Turkish labor migration to West Germany on development efforts of Turkey in the last section. Rather than micro level effects of migration, I concentrate on macro scale effects of migration on national economy of Turkey. In doing so, I focus on the expectations of economic development and the extent to which these expectations have been accomplished with a dynamic perspective. I include in the discussion, the maturity of the migration flow and related social and economic changes, which in turn effect expectations and their realization. The role of the government policies is also discussed.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Out-migration affects development of sending countries in three major ways: through export of labor, return migration, and remittances. Therefore, to determine overall impact of migration on the sending countries, it is crucial to evaluate its effects on these three grounds. When the effects are positive it is implicitly assumed that economic laws will operate and automatically lead to economic development and growth. Literature focuses on determining positive and negative effects of migration through export of labor, return migration, and remittances, but largely ignores the assumption that once the conditions are satisfied, "take off" is inevitable for the sending country's economy (Penninx 1982). Many studies on developmental effects of migration conclude that out-migration contributes significantly to basic economic conditions, however, it still remains a question whether these contributions actually lead to economic development and growth.

Rather than assuming the "free choice of the migrant" as the basis of migration, many scholars note that in the context of international migration, demand for labor in receiving countries and regulations set by these countries play a determining role in current waves of migration (Martin 1991; Martin and Miller 1980; Papademetriou and Martin 1991; Portes 1983). Receiving countries have below replacement level birth rates and an aging population. These countries' labor markets are structured mainly as primary and secondary sectors, each with distinct human capital requirements. Jobs in the secondary sector are very likely to be unskilled and unstable. Labor demand in this sector fluctuates depending on the general economic conditions. Because of seasonal or temporary characteristics of the jobs, employees do not want to retain workers when labor is not needed. Given their temporary nature and the fact that they are low paid with poor working conditions and undesirable social statuses, these jobs are hardly attractive for native workers. Consequently, employees and/or governments turn to labor sending countries for labor recruitment.

It is also widely accepted in the literature that migration is a selective process. Most people do not migrate. Migrants are usually young, healthy, dynamic, and likely have human capital. On the other hand, receiving countries usually have a demand for labor with certain skills, which leads to migration of people with those skills. Since some skills are hard to replace, migration is likely to drain the pool of young and skilled workers in sending countries, and cause two major problems: First, losses in output and capital formation due to missing or failing inter-industry linkages, which may further reduce domestic employment; Second, disruptions in production and productivity, as emigrating skilled and managerial talent is replaced by less skilled and experienced individuals who might offer lower quality services for higher unit of labor costs (Papademetriou and Martin 1991). This process has an ethical dimension as well. Migration of trained, skilled, and experienced labor force may cause a brain drain, which further increases the developmental gap between nations.

One of the main questions to determine the overall impact of labor migration on development of the sending countries is whether labor migration has been a significant drain on the reservoir of skills of the sending countries (Appleyard 1992; Appleyard 1989). If the answer is no, meaning the substantial proportion of the migrants have had little or no skills at all, then migration may not be a drain of skills. On the other hand, if the migrants are the "cream of the labor force," then emigration may lead to a serious shortage of certain skills. In such a case, either the price of labor increases or the positions are filled out by less skilled labor. In either case, internal migration occurs to fill out the job vacancies created by emigration. As people move from the rural areas, agricultural productivity decreases along with an increase in agricultural wages. The extent to which labor migration represents a loss in public funds depends on the amount spent on training internal migrants on their new jobs.

Since migration is a selective process and younger and more progressive members of the societies are more likely to migrate the sending societies are likely to preserve their traditional structures. Under these conditions, a significant return flow is likely to lead to a strong confrontation at first, followed by changes in society (Papademetriou and Martin 1991). However, this scenario is not that likely, because return migrants tend to settle in urban metropolitan centers rather than the rural villages or small-towns where they have originated.

Besides its social effects, return migration is also expected to have economic impacts. On the one hand, migrant workers, exposed to the discipline and rhythm of industrial life at work in the receiving countries are anticipated to bring new skills with them upon their return. Even when the industrial sectors relevant to their skills do not exist in the country, the existence of skilled workers thought to give impetus for entrepreneurship to invest in these industries. On the other hand, some scholars argue that migrants usually have such exposure to industrial work prior to emigration, and relatively few migrants acquire new skills. Since most receiving countries do not have a significant labor demand for skilled workers, migrant workers may not even work in jobs requiring skills, and therefore, have a chance to add to their existent skills (Papademetriou and Martin 1991). In cases where they acquire new skills, then they may be reluctant to return home since they get a better return for their work in the receiving countries. If they return, they usually prefer independence of owning their own businesses, and many choose semi-retirement upon return. They usually do not engage in industrial work. Another possibility is that the...