Migration trends and population change between the censuses.

• Author: Kinghorn, Matt

Data from the 2010 Census show that Indiana added more than 400,000 residents in the last 10 years to reach a total population of 6.48 million. Indiana's 6.6 percent growth rate far outpaced neighboring Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. Furthermore, 63 of Indiana's 92 counties posted a population increase over the same period.

On the face of it, these are encouraging numbers, yet they mask some troubling trends. Namely, two-thirds of Indiana's counties had a net out-migration of residents over the decade. In many counties, these losses were offset by the natural increase of the population (i.e., more births than deaths) but not in all. Statewide, Indiana did have a net in-migration of residents last decade but the final tally was well below the level during the 1990s.

While data on total population changes are important for a variety of reasons, they do not always provide a clean indicator of how populations respond to the current conditions on the ground. Migration numbers, on the other hand, offer a more representative measure of a local area's vitality. These numbers are akin to a referendum on the economic or quality of life conditions in a given community. This article will examine Indiana's population shifts by the different components of change, with an emphasis on migration. Later, there will be a focus on Indiana's migration patterns by age and the geographic distribution of migrants to and from the state. Finally, we will look at trends in a handful of counties to examine the primary drivers of migration in different areas of the state.

Population Change across the State

Any discussion of Indiana's population growth over the past decade must start with the Indianapolis-Carmel metro area. The 10-county region1 fueled much of Indiana's population growth over the past decade, adding 231,137 people--a 15.2 percent increase. This region accounted for 57 percent of the state's total growth. This rapid growth means that the state's population is becoming increasingly concentrated in central Indiana. The 10-county metro area's share of the state population increased from 25.1 percent in 2000 to 27.1 percent in 2010.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Indiana's other large metropolitan statistical areas--Gary, Fort Wayne, Evansville and South Bend--also grew but only Fort Wayne outpaced the state's mark of 6.6 percent growth over the decade.

Meanwhile, many of the midsized communities that long formed much of Indiana's industrial backbone saw significant population decline. This is particularly the case through a swath of north-central and east-central Indiana where metropolitan and micropolitan areas such as Logansport (-4.8 percent), Wabash (-5.9 percent), Kokomo (-2.8 percent), Marion (-4.6 percent), Anderson (-1.3 percent), Muncie (-0.9 percent), Richmond (-3.1 percent) and Connersville (-5.1 percent) lost population.

In all, 63 Indiana counties added residents over the last decade while 29 lost population (see Figure 1). Blackford County (-9.1 percent), Benton County (-6.0 percent) and Wabash County (-5.9 percent) had the sharpest declines of all Indiana counties. The 29 counties with shrinking populations combined to lose 27,947 residents over this period.

Meanwhile, the state's five fastest-growing counties all bordered Marion County. These ring counties were led by Hamilton and Hendricks, which grew by 50 percent (91,829 residents) and 40 percent (41,355), respectively.

Indiana's largest counties are growing, too. Marion County added 42,939 residents to reach a total population of 903,393--a 5 percent increase. In Northwest Indiana, Lake County is up 2.4 percent to 496,005 residents, while neighboring Porter County grew by 12 percent to reach 164,343. Allen County grew by 7.1 percent to climb to 355,329 residents.

While industrial decline may have led to population loss in many parts of the state, two metro areas that are heavily focused on manufacturing saw strong growth. Elkhart County, despite being hit hard by both recessions in this decade, posted an 8.1 percent population growth, while Bartholomew County grew by 7.5 percent.

Components of Indiana's Population Change

Populations grow or contract through natural increase (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and migration. Over the last decade, Indiana had roughly 320,000...