Migration and security are interrelated.

• Author: Miller, Mark

No one knows how many international migrants there are. The head of the Geneva-based International Organization for Migration ventured an estimate of 120,000,000 in 1994--about two percent of the world's population. Given events in Africa, the numbers are growing. These huge waves of people are making life difficult for developed, developing, and poor countries alike. In Zaire, migrants are the proximate cause of a war that is spreading over an area three times the size of Texas.

In region after region, from Africa to the Middle East to the Americas and Europe, migrants are a problem. One category is those who claim asylum. In 1995, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated there were 15,00O,000 legitimate asylum seekers. However, this figure does not include huge populations not officially recognized. For instance, roughly half of Bosnia-Herzegovina's population of 4,00O,000 was displaced. Of the more than 1,00O,000 Bosnians abroad, most have not been recognized as refugees, but, rather, have been granted temporary haven (a rather fanciful official designation suggesting they will be repatriated).

Another huge category of migrants is the internally displaced--refugees within their own countries, but without the protection of government. The U.S. Committee for Refugees estimates the global population of internally displaced at 20,000,000. Events in Central Africa are illustrative. Years ago, Tutsi refugees who fled the ethnic strife in Rwanda found haven in neighboring Uganda. There, the Tutsis regrouped. In 1994, the Tutsis attacked Rwanda from Ugandan territory. Their advance triggered the organized slaughter of Tutsis and moderate Hutus in Rwanda. About 500 Tutsis were killed, but they regrouped again and retook Rwanda.

Millions of Hutus fled retribution to Tanzania and Zaire in 1995. In short order, Tanzania forced out most of the Hutu refugees. Some of these Hutus returned to Rwanda and were killed. Zaire also threatened to force the Hutu refugees back to Rwanda in the autumn of 1996. International agencies opposed forced repatriation, but dithered for months. Canada pushed for an international intervention to help the Hutus go home safely, but the U.S. stalled. Part of American indifference was a case of election campaign-inspired attention deficit disorder to foreign policy of all kinds.

Earlier this year, a Tutsi insurrection progressed in eastern Zaire, whose neighbors abetted the rebel advance on the tottering...